Guerreros del Pacifico vs FC Santiago
Match result probability Model pick: FC Santiago win
Guerreros del Pacifico win
33.7%
Draw
32.1%
FC Santiago winPick
34.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.6%
No50.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.545.1%
Under 2.554.9%
How much we know
Guerreros del Pacifico history0 matches
FC Santiago history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours FC Santiago
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 00:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 01:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.2%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why FC Santiago are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
FC Santiago are rated 87 Elo points higher
Elo 1,587 against 1,500. On rating alone FC Santiago would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Santiago@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1587.3
0
ELO · Matches
37
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1587.3
1587.3
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-87.27
Current ELO Difference
87.27
0.38
Expected score
0.62
0
History Matches
37
—
Residual Mean
0.13
—
Overperformance
58.26
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.60
—
Goals for per game
3.00
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Win rate
40.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
2.10
—
Goals for per game
2.40
—
Goals against per game
0.70
—
Win rate
60.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
37
—
PPG
2.00
—
Win rate
56.8%
—
Draw rate
29.7%
—
Loss rate
13.5%
—
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
—
Over 2.5 rate
40.5%
—
Over 3.5 rate
18.9%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
16
—
PPG
1.75
—
Win rate
43.8%
—
Draw rate
43.8%
—
Loss rate
12.5%
—
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
—
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
—
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
0
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.70
—
Scoring rate
86.5%
—
BTTS rate
45.9%
—
Goals for per game
1.69
—
Scoring rate
87.5%
—
BTTS rate
56.3%
0
History Matches
37
—
Goals Mean
1.70
—
Goals Std
1.37
—
Scored 1+ rate
86.5%
—
Scored 2+ rate
43.2%
—
Scored 3+ rate
21.6%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
0.73
—
Conceding rate
54.1%
—
Goals against per game
0.88
—
Conceding rate
62.5%
0
History Matches
37
—
Conceded Mean
0.73
—
Conceded Std
0.89
—
Conceded 2+ rate
10.8%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
0.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
45.9%
—
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
45.9%
—
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
45.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
37
—
Result entropy
0.87
—
Goal Difference Std
1.85
—
Stability score
13.29
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
36
0
Lead Matches
15
—
Lead Win Rate
93.3%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.96
0
Trailing Matches
5
—
Non-loss rate
60.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.28
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
209.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
13
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
0
Long Rest History Matches
22
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.34
—
Portability PPG Range
0.69
—
Portability Score
59.19
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-87.27
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-37
History Matches-16
History Matches-37
History Matches-37
History Matches-37
Eligible Matches-36
Lead Matches-15
Trailing Matches-5
Halftime Coverage Matches-36
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest History Matches-22
Current Team ELO-87.27
Current Opponent ELO87.27
Current ELO Difference-174.5
Expected score-0.25
History Matches-37
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Guerreros del Pacifico
W
Guerreros del Pacifico5–0Héroes de Zaci31 Oct · home
Pick: Héroes de Zaci 38% · missed L
Dragones de Oaxaca5–1Guerreros del Pacifico13 Oct · away
Pick: Dragones de Oaxaca 55% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
FC Santiago
W
FC Santiago4–0Halcones Negros7 Nov · home
Pick: FC Santiago 67% · hit W
Ciervos0–3FC Santiago31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Santiago 55% · hit W
FC Santiago6–0Real Refineros27 Oct · home
Pick: FC Santiago 67% · hit D
FC Santiago2–2Guerreros4 Oct · home
Pick: FC Santiago 62% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Guerreros del Pacifico and FC Santiago meet in Liga Premier Serie A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Guerreros del Pacifico win 33.7%, draw 32.1%, FC Santiago win 34.2%. The pick is FC Santiago win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.1%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.