ScoreProb
Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

Hamburger SV Home · Elo 1,511
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Borussia Mönchengladbach Away · Elo 1,583
Volksparkstadion, Hamburger Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach win
Hamburger SV win
29.5%
Draw
20.6%
Borussia Mönchengladbach winPick
49.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.2%
No40.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.9%
Under 2.535.1%

How much we know

Hamburger SV history61 matches
Borussia Mönchengladbach history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Borussia Mönchengladbach are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,583 against 1,511. On rating alone Borussia Mönchengladbach would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Borussia Mönchengladbach score more

    1.46 goals a game over 61 matches for Hamburger SV, against 1.87 over 67 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

  • Defences are close

    Hamburger SV concede 1.51 a game, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Hamburger SV matches, against 66% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.9
ELO
1583.5
61
ELO · Matches
67
1510.9
Current Team ELO
1583.5
1583.5
Current Opponent ELO
1510.9
-72.60
Current ELO Difference
72.60
0.40
Expected score
0.60
61
History Matches
67
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
50.17
Overperformance
53.90
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.43
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
3.00
2.00
Goals for per game
4.00
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.70
1.80
Goals for per game
3.80
1.70
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.80
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.27
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
67
1.23
PPG
1.48
31.1%
Win rate
41.8%
29.5%
Draw rate
22.4%
39.3%
Loss rate
35.8%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
63.9%
Over 2.5 rate
65.7%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
43.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
38
1.32
PPG
1.61
32.1%
Win rate
47.4%
35.7%
Draw rate
18.4%
32.1%
Loss rate
34.2%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.8%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
71.1%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.68
28
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.46
Goals for per game
1.87
75.4%
Scoring rate
76.1%
62.3%
BTTS rate
50.7%
1.64
Goals for per game
2.21
75.0%
Scoring rate
78.9%
67.9%
BTTS rate
52.6%
61
History Matches
67
1.46
Goals Mean
1.87
1.26
Goals Std
1.75
75.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
46.3%
18.0%
Scored 3+ rate
31.3%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
2.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.51
Goals against per game
1.51
77.0%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.43
Goals against per game
1.47
82.1%
Conceding rate
68.4%
61
History Matches
67
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.24
Conceded Std
1.45
45.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.3%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.9%
1.43
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
23.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
23.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
67
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.92
Goal Difference Std
2.44
0.74
Stability score
2.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
67
16
Lead Matches
25
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.89
22
Trailing Matches
17
18.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.01
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.15
Rest days
75.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
30
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
28
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.45
45.03
Portability Score
46.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-72.60
PPG-0.25
GF-0.41
GA0.00
PPG-0.28
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate3.9%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.41
Goals Std-0.49
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.52
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate2.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.52
Stability score-2.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.42
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate18.2%
Trailing Win Rate4.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-1.20
Rest days-1.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Current Team ELO-72.60
Current Opponent ELO72.60
Current ELO Difference-145.2
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hamburger SV

L
Eintracht Frankfurt3–1Hamburger SV1 Nov · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 56% · hit
L
Hamburger SV1–3Eintracht Frankfurt27 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 55% · hit
L
SC Paderborn 071–0Hamburger SV24 Oct · away
Pick: SC Paderborn 07 39% · hit
W
Hamburger SV1–0VfB Stuttgart17 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Stuttgart 53% · missed
W
Hamburger SV2–0FC Copenhagen4 Oct · home
Pick: FC Copenhagen 47% · missed

Borussia Mönchengladbach

D
Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0SC Paderborn 0731 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 51% · missed
W
Borussia Mönchengladbach2–0Karlsruher SC27 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% · hit
W
VfB Stuttgart2–3Borussia Mönchengladbach23 Oct · away
Pick: VfB Stuttgart 60% · missed
L
Borussia Mönchengladbach1–21899 Hoffenheim18 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% · missed
L
RB Leipzig3–0Borussia Mönchengladbach29 Aug · away
Pick: RB Leipzig 44% · hit

About this match

Hamburger SV and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet in Bundesliga on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Hamburger SV win 29.5%, draw 20.6%, Borussia Mönchengladbach win 49.9%. The pick is Borussia Mönchengladbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.9%. Both teams to score: 59.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.