Harrogate Town vs AFC Fylde
Match result probability Model pick: AFC Fylde win
Harrogate Town win
30.8%
Draw
26.2%
AFC Fylde winPick
42.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.5%
No46.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.8%
Under 2.547.2%
How much we know
Harrogate Town history82 matches
AFC Fylde history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours AFC Fylde
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why AFC Fylde are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
AFC Fylde are rated 88 Elo points higher
Elo 1,574 against 1,486. On rating alone AFC Fylde would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
AFC Fylde score far more
1.11 goals a game over 82 matches for Harrogate Town, against 1.87 over 86 for AFC Fylde.
-
Defences are close
Harrogate Town concede 1.43 a game, AFC Fylde 1.36.
-
AFC Fylde games more often go over 2.5 goals
48% of Harrogate Town matches, against 66% for AFC Fylde. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AFC Fylde@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1485.8
ELO
1573.7
82
ELO · Matches
86
1485.8
Current Team ELO
1573.7
1573.7
Current Opponent ELO
1485.8
-87.95
Current ELO Difference
87.95
0.38
Expected score
0.62
82
History Matches
86
0.00
Residual Mean
0.04
49.62
Overperformance
53.33
0.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.00
2.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.10
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals 90
82
Matches
86
1.17
PPG
1.58
31.7%
Win rate
47.7%
22.0%
Draw rate
15.1%
46.3%
Loss rate
37.2%
70.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
66.3%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals 100
42
Matches
44
1.19
PPG
1.52
33.3%
Win rate
45.5%
19.0%
Draw rate
15.9%
47.6%
Loss rate
38.6%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.6%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
42
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.11
Goals for per game
1.87
67.1%
Scoring rate
77.9%
51.2%
BTTS rate
60.5%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.75
66.7%
Scoring rate
72.7%
52.4%
BTTS rate
56.8%
82
History Matches
86
1.11
Goals Mean
1.87
1.07
Goals Std
1.50
67.1%
Scored 1+ rate
77.9%
29.3%
Scored 2+ rate
54.7%
11.0%
Scored 3+ rate
31.4%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.43
Goals against per game
1.36
79.3%
Conceding rate
80.2%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
83.3%
Conceding rate
81.8%
82
History Matches
86
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.05
Conceded Std
0.99
43.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.7%
17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
1.60
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.8%
32.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.8%
32.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
82
History Matches
86
0.96
Result entropy
0.92
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.90
4.11
Stability score
8.37
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
82
Eligible Matches
85
20
Lead Matches
36
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.76
26
Trailing Matches
22
19.2%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
3.8%
Trailing Win Rate
22.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.15
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
66
Normal Rest History Matches
72
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
12
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.75
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.86
Portability PPG Std
0.53
2.27
Portability PPG Range
1.84
36.84
Portability Score
48.50
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
82
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-87.95
PPG-0.41
GF-0.76
GA0.07
PPG-0.33
PPG1.20
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Failed-to-score rate10.8%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.76
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Conceded 2+ rate3.2%
Conceded 3+ rate4.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score-4.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate2.8%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-11.66
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.75
Current Team ELO-87.95
Current Opponent ELO87.95
Current ELO Difference-175.9
Expected score-0.25
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.63
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Harrogate Town
D
Forest Green2–2Harrogate Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Forest Green 41% · missed L
Carlisle3–0Harrogate Town28 Oct · away
Pick: Carlisle 43% · hit W
Harrogate Town3–1Sutton Utd24 Oct · home
Pick: Sutton Utd 39% · missed W
Harrogate Town2–1Gateshead31 Aug · home
Pick: Harrogate Town 54% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
AFC Fylde
W
AFC Fylde3–1AFC Hornchurch30 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 46% · missed W
AFC Fylde3–1Hartlepool27 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Fylde 43% · hit L
Boreham Wood4–0AFC Fylde24 Oct · away
Pick: Boreham Wood 56% · hit W
AFC Fylde5–0Atherton Collieries17 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Fylde 68% · hit W
Solihull Moors1–3AFC Fylde31 Aug · away
Pick: AFC Fylde 51% · hit About this match
Harrogate Town and AFC Fylde meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Exercise Stadium, Harrogate. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Harrogate Town win 30.8%, draw 26.2%, AFC Fylde win 42.9%. The pick is AFC Fylde win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.8%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.