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National League England Round 17 2026

Hartlepool vs Wealdstone

Hartlepool Home · Elo 1,558
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wealdstone Away · Elo 1,505
Victoria Park, Hartlepool Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hartlepool win
Hartlepool winPick
51.3%
Draw
22.5%
Wealdstone win
26.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%

How much we know

Hartlepool history80 matches
Wealdstone history92 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.3%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Hartlepool are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hartlepool are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,505. On rating alone Hartlepool would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 80 matches for Hartlepool, against 1.39 over 92 for Wealdstone.

  • Defences are close

    Hartlepool concede 1.49 a game, Wealdstone 1.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Hartlepool matches, against 53% for Wealdstone. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hartlepool
Wealdstone@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1558.0
ELO
1505.0
80
ELO · Matches
92
1558.0
Current Team ELO
1505.0
1505.0
Current Opponent ELO
1558.0
53.00
Current ELO Difference
-53.00
0.58
Expected score
0.42
80
History Matches
92
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.09
Overperformance
51.24
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
2.30
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
2.79
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.46
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
92
1.44
PPG
1.43
38.8%
Win rate
41.3%
27.5%
Draw rate
19.6%
33.8%
Loss rate
39.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.5%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
40
1.51
PPG
0.90
41.5%
Win rate
22.5%
26.8%
Draw rate
22.5%
31.7%
Loss rate
55.0%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
24.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
41
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.39
72.5%
Scoring rate
73.9%
53.8%
BTTS rate
52.2%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.03
70.7%
Scoring rate
62.5%
51.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
80
History Matches
92
1.29
Goals Mean
1.39
1.14
Goals Std
1.30
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
73.9%
33.8%
Scored 2+ rate
39.1%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.53
71.3%
Conceding rate
76.1%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.83
70.7%
Conceding rate
85.0%
0.67
Goals against per game
2.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
92
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.61
Conceded Std
1.30
41.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.4%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.8%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
92
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.03
0.88
Stability score
4.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
91
20
Lead Matches
21
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
95.2%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.95
23
Trailing Matches
30
26.1%
Non-loss rate
23.3%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
91
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.15
Rest days
84.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.86
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
61
Normal Rest History Matches
71
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
11
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
0.33
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
8
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.62
1.24
Portability PPG Range
2.00
53.35
Portability Score
44.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
92
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO53.00
PPG0.00
GF-0.10
GA-0.05
PPG1.67
PPG0.61
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.36
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-3.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.84
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate2.8%
Trailing Win Rate2.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.76
Portability Score8.62
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO53.00
Current Opponent ELO-53.00
Current ELO Difference106.0
Expected score0.15
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hartlepool

W
Hartlepool3–1Leeds United U213 Nov · home
Pick: Hartlepool 41% · hit
L
Boreham Wood4–3Hartlepool31 Oct · away
Pick: Boreham Wood 57% · hit
L
AFC Fylde3–1Hartlepool27 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Fylde 43% · hit
W
Hartlepool2–1AFC Hornchurch24 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 37% · missed
L
Hartlepool0–2Marine17 Oct · home
Pick: Marine 39% · hit

Wealdstone

L
Dover2–0Wealdstone7 Nov · away
Pick: Wealdstone 44% · missed
W
Wealdstone3–2Southend31 Oct · home
Pick: Southend 45% · missed
L
Wealdstone2–3Solihull Moors27 Oct · home
Pick: Wealdstone 51% · missed
W
Aldershot Town0–1Wealdstone24 Oct · away
Pick: Aldershot Town 52% · missed
W
Wealdstone1–0Nottingham Forest U2120 Oct · home
Pick: Wealdstone 49% · hit

About this match

Hartlepool and Wealdstone meet in National League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Victoria Park, Hartlepool. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Hartlepool win 51.3%, draw 22.5%, Wealdstone win 26.2%. The pick is Hartlepool win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.4%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.