ScoreProb
Log in
National League England Round 17 2026

AFC Hornchurch vs Tamworth

AFC Hornchurch Home · Elo 1,589
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tamworth Away · Elo 1,536
Hornchurch Stadium, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AFC Hornchurch win
AFC Hornchurch winPick
54.4%
Draw
21.1%
Tamworth win
24.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.3%
No40.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%

How much we know

AFC Hornchurch history88 matches
Tamworth history96 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.4%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why AFC Hornchurch are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AFC Hornchurch are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,536. On rating alone AFC Hornchurch would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • AFC Hornchurch score more

    1.88 goals a game over 88 matches for AFC Hornchurch, against 1.56 over 96 for Tamworth.

  • AFC Hornchurch concede fewer

    AFC Hornchurch concede 1.31 a game, Tamworth 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of AFC Hornchurch matches, against 57% for Tamworth. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AFC Hornchurch
Tamworth@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.9
ELO
1535.8
88
ELO · Matches
96
1588.9
Current Team ELO
1535.8
1535.8
Current Opponent ELO
1588.9
53.14
Current ELO Difference
-53.14
0.58
Expected score
0.42
88
History Matches
96
0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
54.09
Overperformance
52.45
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
96
1.75
PPG
1.47
50.0%
Win rate
40.6%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
34.4%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.3%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.3%
38.6%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
42
1.80
PPG
1.21
51.1%
Win rate
31.0%
26.7%
Draw rate
28.6%
22.2%
Loss rate
40.5%
82.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
31.1%
Over 3.5 rate
45.2%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
45
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
1.56
86.4%
Scoring rate
83.3%
61.4%
BTTS rate
65.6%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.40
88.9%
Scoring rate
83.3%
62.2%
BTTS rate
71.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
88
History Matches
96
1.88
Goals Mean
1.56
1.36
Goals Std
1.26
86.4%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
56.8%
Scored 2+ rate
39.6%
27.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.47
69.3%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.90
66.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.67
Goals against per game
3.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
88
History Matches
96
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.24
Conceded Std
1.23
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
96
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.83
5.36
Stability score
1.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
94
38
Lead Matches
30
71.1%
Lead Win Rate
63.3%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.71
19
Trailing Matches
24
36.8%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
94
0.99
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.15
Rest days
84.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
75
Normal Rest History Matches
81
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
6
Long Rest History Matches
8
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
0.33
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
8
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.63
0.95
Portability PPG Range
2.17
62.34
Portability Score
44.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
96
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO53.14
PPG0.28
GF0.31
GA-0.16
PPG1.67
PPG0.59
PPG0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate17.2%
Scored 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.64
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score3.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate7.7%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate20.2%
Trailing Win Rate1.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.32
Portability PPG Range-1.21
Portability Score17.94
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.75
Current Team ELO53.14
Current Opponent ELO-53.14
Current ELO Difference106.3
Expected score0.15
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AFC Hornchurch

W
AFC Hornchurch2–0West Ham United U213 Nov · home
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 51% · hit
L
AFC Fylde3–1AFC Hornchurch30 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 46% · missed
L
AFC Hornchurch1–2Yeovil Town27 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 44% · missed
L
Hartlepool2–1AFC Hornchurch24 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 37% · missed
W
Uxbridge0–4AFC Hornchurch17 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 53% · hit

Tamworth

L
Tamworth2–3Everton U213 Nov · home
Pick: Tamworth 65% · missed
L
Tamworth0–1Woking31 Oct · home
Pick: Tamworth 40% · missed
W
Tamworth4–1Scunthorpe27 Oct · home
Pick: Scunthorpe 39% · missed
L
Carlisle2–1Tamworth17 Oct · away
Pick: Carlisle 40% · hit
W
Tamworth1–0Leeds United U216 Oct · home
Pick: Tamworth 73% · hit

About this match

AFC Hornchurch and Tamworth meet in National League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Hornchurch Stadium, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: AFC Hornchurch win 54.4%, draw 21.1%, Tamworth win 24.5%. The pick is AFC Hornchurch win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.9%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.