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National League England Round 17 2026

Carlisle vs Boston United

Carlisle Home · Elo 1,632
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Boston United Away · Elo 1,519
Brunton Park, Carlisle Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Carlisle win
Carlisle winPick
40.6%
Draw
28.2%
Boston United win
31.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.4%
No43.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%

How much we know

Carlisle history82 matches
Boston United history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Carlisle are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Carlisle are rated 113 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,632 against 1,519. On rating alone Carlisle would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Carlisle score more

    1.74 goals a game over 82 matches for Carlisle, against 1.44 over 87 for Boston United.

  • Defences are close

    Carlisle concede 1.26 a game, Boston United 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Carlisle matches, against 56% for Boston United. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Carlisle
Boston United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1631.6
ELO
1518.8
82
ELO · Matches
87
1631.6
Current Team ELO
1518.8
1518.8
Current Opponent ELO
1631.6
112.9
Current ELO Difference
-112.9
0.66
Expected score
0.34
82
History Matches
87
0.07
Residual Mean
0.02
55.88
Overperformance
51.32
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.10
1.00
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
87
1.78
PPG
1.40
52.4%
Win rate
39.1%
20.7%
Draw rate
23.0%
26.8%
Loss rate
37.9%
81.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.6%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.7%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
41
1.87
PPG
1.41
52.6%
Win rate
39.0%
28.9%
Draw rate
24.4%
18.4%
Loss rate
36.6%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
65.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
44.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
38
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.74
Goals for per game
1.44
82.9%
Scoring rate
73.6%
54.9%
BTTS rate
54.0%
2.11
Goals for per game
1.56
84.2%
Scoring rate
75.6%
60.5%
BTTS rate
63.4%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
82
History Matches
87
1.74
Goals Mean
1.44
1.28
Goals Std
1.28
82.9%
Scored 1+ rate
73.6%
54.9%
Scored 2+ rate
42.5%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
2.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.33
68.3%
Conceding rate
73.6%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.56
68.4%
Conceding rate
85.4%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
82
History Matches
87
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.18
Conceded Std
1.20
37.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.9%
13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
87
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.77
7.36
Stability score
2.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
87
32
Lead Matches
23
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.77
23
Trailing Matches
25
34.8%
Non-loss rate
32.0%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
12.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.15
Rest days
84.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
10
2.43
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
63
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
11
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
7
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.95
Portability PPG Range
1.25
43.47
Portability Score
54.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO112.9
PPG0.38
GF0.31
GA-0.08
PPG-0.67
PPG0.45
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate16.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate9.4%
Scored 2+ rate12.3%
Scored 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score5.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate13.6%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate2.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.70
Portability Score-10.98
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.63
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.04
Current Team ELO112.9
Current Opponent ELO-112.9
Current ELO Difference225.7
Expected score0.31
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Carlisle

W
Carlisle1–0Salford City7 Nov · home
Pick: Salford City 39% · missed
W
Altrincham2–4Carlisle31 Oct · away
Pick: Carlisle 49% · hit
W
Carlisle3–0Harrogate Town28 Oct · home
Pick: Carlisle 43% · hit
W
Solihull Moors1–2Carlisle24 Oct · away
Pick: Carlisle 50% · hit
W
Carlisle2–1Tamworth17 Oct · home
Pick: Carlisle 40% · hit

Boston United

W
Boston United1–0Leicester City U213 Nov · home
Pick: Boston United 56% · hit
W
Boston United2–1Scunthorpe31 Oct · home
Pick: Boston United 46% · hit
W
Boston United2–1Gateshead27 Oct · home
Pick: Boston United 57% · hit
L
Eastleigh4–2Boston United24 Oct · away
Pick: Boston United 41% · missed
L
Boston United1–3Scunthorpe17 Oct · home
Pick: Scunthorpe 41% · hit

About this match

Carlisle and Boston United meet in National League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Brunton Park, Carlisle. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Carlisle win 40.6%, draw 28.2%, Boston United win 31.2%. The pick is Carlisle win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.2%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.