ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie C Czechia Group C - 14 2026

Hlinsko vs Letohrad

Hlinsko Home · Elo 1,470
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Letohrad Away · Elo 1,466
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hlinsko win
Hlinsko winPick
84.5%
Draw
8.7%
Letohrad win
6.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.584.1%
Under 2.515.9%

How much we know

Hlinsko history53 matches
Letohrad history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (84.5%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Hlinsko are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,470 against 1,466. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Hlinsko score far more

    1.79 goals a game over 53 matches for Hlinsko, against 1.00 over 4 for Letohrad.

  • Hlinsko concede fewer

    Hlinsko concede 2.15 a game, Letohrad 4.50.

  • Letohrad games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Hlinsko matches, against 100% for Letohrad. The model puts this match at 84% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hlinsko
Letohrad
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.8
ELO
1465.6
53
ELO · Matches
4
1469.8
Current Team ELO
1465.6
1465.6
Current Opponent ELO
1469.8
4.23
Current ELO Difference
-4.23
0.51
Expected score
0.49
53
History Matches
4
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.47
48.09
Overperformance
42.11
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.47
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
4
1.40
PPG
0.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
2.60
Goals against per game
4.50
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
4
1.10
PPG
0.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
2.70
Goals against per game
4.50
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.00
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
4.50
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.18
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
3.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
4
1.30
PPG
0.00
39.6%
Win rate
0.0%
11.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
49.1%
Loss rate
100.0%
88.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.5%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
56.6%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
3
1.89
PPG
0.00
59.3%
Win rate
0.0%
11.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
29.6%
Loss rate
100.0%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
27
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.79
Goals for per game
1.00
75.5%
Scoring rate
100.0%
58.5%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.11
Goals for per game
1.00
85.2%
Scoring rate
100.0%
59.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
4
1.79
Goals Mean
1.00
1.59
Goals Std
0.00
75.5%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
49.1%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
34.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.15
Goals against per game
4.50
83.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.63
Goals against per game
4.67
74.1%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
4
2.15
Conceded Mean
4.50
1.59
Conceded Std
2.18
62.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
37.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
75.0%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
4.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
4
0.88
Result entropy
0.00
2.60
Goal Difference Std
2.18
12.36
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
4
16
Lead Matches
0
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.90
Lead Points Retention
—
22
Trailing Matches
4
13.6%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.96
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.25
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.25
1.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.25
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.77
Rest days
76.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
27
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
21
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
0.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.33
5
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.56
Portability PPG Std
—
1.20
Portability PPG Range
—
47.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO4.23
PPG1.30
GF0.79
GA-2.35
PPG2.33
PPG1.89
PPG1.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches49
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate24.5%
History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate25.9%
Failed-to-score rate14.8%
History Matches49
Goals Mean0.79
Goals Std1.59
Scored 1+ rate-0.25
Scored 2+ rate49.1%
Scored 3+ rate34.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.80
History Matches49
Conceded Mean-2.35
Conceded Std-0.58
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.38
Conceded 3+ rate-0.37
Venue Conceded Mean-3.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches49
Result entropy0.88
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score-87.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.34
Eligible Matches49
Lead Matches16
Trailing Matches18
Non-loss rate13.6%
Trailing Win Rate4.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches49
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.67
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.67
Long Rest History Matches21
Current Team ELO4.23
Current Opponent ELO-4.23
Current ELO Difference8.45
Expected score0.01
History Matches49
Residual Mean0.45
Overperformance5.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.38

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hlinsko

D
Chrudim II1–1Hlinsko31 Oct · away
Pick: Hlinsko 57% · missed
L
Hlinsko1–3Turnov24 Oct · home
Pick: Hlinsko 49% · missed
L
Spartak Police n/Metují3–2Hlinsko18 Oct · away
Pick: Hlinsko 42% · missed
L
Chlumec nad Cidlinou2–0Hlinsko4 Oct · away
Pick: Hlinsko 42% · missed
W
Hlinsko2–1Vykan29 Aug · home
Pick: Vykan 47% · missed

Letohrad

W
Letohrad5–1Slavia Hradec Králové31 Oct · home
Pick: Slavia Hradec Králové 57% · missed
W
Kolín1–2Letohrad25 Oct · away
Pick: Kolín 80% · missed
D
Chrudim II1–1Letohrad17 Oct · away
Pick: Chrudim II 54% · missed
L
Spartak Police n/Metují4–0Letohrad4 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Police n/Metují 80% · hit
L
Letohrad1–2Trutnov29 Aug · home
Pick: Trutnov 62% · hit

About this match

Hlinsko and Letohrad meet in 4. liga - Divizie C on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hlinsko win 84.5%, draw 8.7%, Letohrad win 6.8%. The pick is Hlinsko win. Over 2.5 goals: 84.1%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.