ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie C Czechia Group C - 14 2026

Trutnov vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou

Trutnov Home · Elo 1,479
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chlumec nad Cidlinou Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Trutnov win
Trutnov winPick
55.4%
Draw
20.6%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou win
23.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.3%
No37.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%

How much we know

Trutnov history58 matches
Chlumec nad Cidlinou history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Trutnov are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,479 against 1,475. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Trutnov score more

    2.05 goals a game over 58 matches for Trutnov, against 1.35 over 52 for Chlumec nad Cidlinou.

  • Defences are close

    Trutnov concede 1.78 a game, Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1.62.

  • Trutnov games more often go over 2.5 goals

    72% of Trutnov matches, against 54% for Chlumec nad Cidlinou. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trutnov
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.5
ELO
1474.9
58
ELO · Matches
52
1479.5
Current Team ELO
1474.9
1474.9
Current Opponent ELO
1479.5
4.60
Current ELO Difference
-4.60
0.51
Expected score
0.49
58
History Matches
52
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.88
Overperformance
48.01
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.70
Goals for per game
0.80
2.40
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.74
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
52
1.48
PPG
1.27
44.8%
Win rate
34.6%
13.8%
Draw rate
23.1%
41.4%
Loss rate
42.3%
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
72.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
27
1.53
PPG
1.15
46.7%
Win rate
29.6%
13.3%
Draw rate
25.9%
40.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
73.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
30
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.05
Goals for per game
1.35
84.5%
Scoring rate
76.9%
63.8%
BTTS rate
57.7%
2.37
Goals for per game
1.30
90.0%
Scoring rate
74.1%
60.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
58
History Matches
52
2.05
Goals Mean
1.35
1.74
Goals Std
1.11
84.5%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
55.2%
Scored 2+ rate
36.5%
31.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
2.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
1.62
74.1%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.56
66.7%
Conceding rate
77.8%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
52
1.78
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.50
Conceded Std
1.37
55.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.2%
25.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
15.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
15.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
52
0.91
Result entropy
0.97
2.43
Goal Difference Std
1.91
9.15
Stability score
2.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
52
19
Lead Matches
15
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.84
16
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
76.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
31
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
3.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.13
59.99
Portability Score
51.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO4.60
PPG0.21
GF0.71
GA0.16
PPG0.67
PPG0.39
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.63
Scored 1+ rate7.6%
Scored 2+ rate18.6%
Scored 3+ rate15.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.60
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Conceded 2+ rate10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score6.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score8.14
Rest days0.72
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.22
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO4.60
Current Opponent ELO-4.60
Current ELO Difference9.20
Expected score0.01
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Trutnov

L
Vysoké Mýto3–0Trutnov31 Oct · away
Pick: Vysoké Mýto 66% · hit
W
Trutnov3–0Přepeře24 Oct · home
Pick: Přepeře 42% · missed
W
Trutnov1–0Kolín17 Oct · home
Pick: Trutnov 43% · hit
W
Letohrad1–2Trutnov29 Aug · away
Pick: Trutnov 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

D
Chlumec nad Cidlinou0–0Ústí nad Orlicí1 Nov · home
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 48% · missed
D
Vykan1–1Chlumec nad Cidlinou24 Oct · away
Pick: Vykan 49% · missed
W
Chlumec nad Cidlinou4–1Svitavy18 Oct · home
Pick: Chlumec nad Cidlinou 63% · hit
W
Chlumec nad Cidlinou2–0Hlinsko4 Oct · home
Pick: Hlinsko 42% · missed
L
Spartak Police n/Metují3–1Chlumec nad Cidlinou30 Aug · away
Pick: Spartak Police n/Metují 47% · hit

About this match

Trutnov and Chlumec nad Cidlinou meet in 4. liga - Divizie C on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Trutnov win 55.4%, draw 20.6%, Chlumec nad Cidlinou win 23.9%. The pick is Trutnov win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.5%. Both teams to score: 62.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.