ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie C Czechia Group C - 14 2026

Ústí nad Orlicí vs Kosmonosy

Ústí nad Orlicí Home · Elo 1,469
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kosmonosy Away · Elo 1,519
Stadion TJ Jiskra, Usti nad Orlici Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ústí nad Orlicí win
Ústí nad Orlicí winPick
53.3%
Draw
20.7%
Kosmonosy win
26.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%

How much we know

Ústí nad Orlicí history58 matches
Kosmonosy history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ústí nad Orlicí are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kosmonosy are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,469. On rating alone Kosmonosy would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Kosmonosy score far more

    1.28 goals a game over 58 matches for Ústí nad Orlicí, against 2.02 over 56 for Kosmonosy.

  • Defences are close

    Ústí nad Orlicí concede 1.62 a game, Kosmonosy 1.64.

  • Kosmonosy games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Ústí nad Orlicí matches, against 77% for Kosmonosy. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ústí nad Orlicí
Kosmonosy
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.4
ELO
1518.7
58
ELO · Matches
56
1469.4
Current Team ELO
1518.7
1518.7
Current Opponent ELO
1469.4
-49.37
Current ELO Difference
49.37
0.43
Expected score
0.57
58
History Matches
56
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
48.19
Overperformance
51.86
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
3.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.30
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
56
1.10
PPG
1.57
25.9%
Win rate
46.4%
32.8%
Draw rate
17.9%
41.4%
Loss rate
35.7%
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
94.6%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
76.8%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.1%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
25
1.48
PPG
1.24
41.4%
Win rate
36.0%
24.1%
Draw rate
16.0%
34.5%
Loss rate
48.0%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
20.7%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
29
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
2.02
72.4%
Scoring rate
92.9%
60.3%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.72
79.3%
Scoring rate
88.0%
58.6%
BTTS rate
76.0%
4.00
Goals for per game
2.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
58
History Matches
56
1.28
Goals Mean
2.02
1.17
Goals Std
1.29
72.4%
Scored 1+ rate
92.9%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
60.7%
12.1%
Scored 3+ rate
26.8%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.62
Goals against per game
1.64
81.0%
Conceding rate
80.4%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.92
75.9%
Conceding rate
84.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
58
History Matches
56
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.64
1.22
Conceded Std
1.27
46.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
27.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
56
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.97
1.65
Stability score
6.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
54
14
Lead Matches
15
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.87
21
Trailing Matches
22
23.8%
Non-loss rate
40.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
76.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
29
0.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.90
26
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
2.33
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.72
Portability PPG Std
0.62
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.73
40.85
Portability Score
44.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-49.37
PPG-0.47
GF-0.74
GA-0.02
PPG0.00
PPG0.24
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate20.4%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.74
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches2
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-4.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.27
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score-3.66
Rest days0.72
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match2.57
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.19
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-49.37
Current Opponent ELO49.37
Current ELO Difference-98.74
Expected score-0.14
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ústí nad Orlicí

D
Chlumec nad Cidlinou0–0Ústí nad Orlicí1 Nov · away
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 48% · missed
D
Ústí nad Orlicí0–0Vysoké Mýto24 Oct · home
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 55% · missed
L
Přepeře1–0Ústí nad Orlicí17 Oct · away
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 45% · missed
W
Ústí nad Orlicí2–1Kolín4 Oct · home
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 59% · hit
L
Slavia Hradec Králové3–1Ústí nad Orlicí29 Aug · away
Pick: Ústí nad Orlicí 62% · missed

Kosmonosy

W
Kosmonosy4–1Vykan31 Oct · home
Pick: Kosmonosy 48% · hit
W
Svitavy1–4Kosmonosy25 Oct · away
Pick: Kosmonosy 59% · hit
L
Kosmonosy1–2Dvůr Králové17 Oct · home
Pick: Kosmonosy 75% · missed
W
Kolín0–4Kosmonosy30 Aug · away
Pick: Kosmonosy 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ústí nad Orlicí and Kosmonosy meet in 4. liga - Divizie C on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion TJ Jiskra, Usti nad Orlici. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ústí nad Orlicí win 53.3%, draw 20.7%, Kosmonosy win 26.0%. The pick is Ústí nad Orlicí win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.4%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.