ScoreProb
3. liga - MSFL Czechia MSFL - 15 2026

Hodonín vs Polanka nad Odrou

Hodonín Home · Elo 1,571
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Polanka nad Odrou Away · Elo 1,437
Stadion U Cervenych domku, Hodonin Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hodonín win
Hodonín winPick
45.8%
Draw
25.7%
Polanka nad Odrou win
28.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.7%
No39.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.9%
Under 2.537.1%

How much we know

Hodonín history67 matches
Polanka nad Odrou history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hodonín are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hodonín are rated 135 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,571 against 1,437. On rating alone Hodonín would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Hodonín score more

    2.06 goals a game over 67 matches for Hodonín, against 1.36 over 64 for Polanka nad Odrou.

  • Hodonín concede fewer

    Hodonín concede 1.40 a game, Polanka nad Odrou 1.64.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Hodonín matches, against 61% for Polanka nad Odrou. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hodonín
Polanka nad Odrou
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1571.3
ELO
1436.6
67
ELO · Matches
64
1571.3
Current Team ELO
1436.6
1436.6
Current Opponent ELO
1571.3
134.7
Current ELO Difference
-134.7
0.68
Expected score
0.32
67
History Matches
64
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.05
54.11
Overperformance
45.84
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.80
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
64
1.75
PPG
1.13
50.7%
Win rate
29.7%
22.4%
Draw rate
23.4%
26.9%
Loss rate
46.9%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
61.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
46.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
34
1.62
PPG
1.18
47.1%
Win rate
32.4%
20.6%
Draw rate
20.6%
32.4%
Loss rate
47.1%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.3%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
34
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.06
Goals for per game
1.36
83.6%
Scoring rate
73.4%
64.2%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.74
Goals for per game
1.32
79.4%
Scoring rate
73.5%
55.9%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
64
2.06
Goals Mean
1.36
1.51
Goals Std
1.28
83.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.4%
59.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
34.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.64
77.6%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.62
73.5%
Conceding rate
79.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
67
History Matches
64
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.64
1.11
Conceded Std
1.29
41.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.8%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.6%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
16.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.6%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
16.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.6%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
64
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.92
6.03
Stability score
3.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
64
20
Lead Matches
19
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.75
17
Trailing Matches
21
41.2%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
23.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.19
Rest days
76.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
30
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
24
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
0.25
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.25
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.73
1.56
Portability PPG Range
1.82
44.93
Portability Score
40.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO134.7
PPG0.62
GF0.70
GA-0.24
PPG0.25
PPG0.44
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.70
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate10.1%
Scored 2+ rate22.2%
Scored 3+ rate20.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score2.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.65
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate16.6%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate26.9%
Trailing Win Rate23.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.26
Portability Score4.16
Rest days-0.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.54
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.66
Current Team ELO134.7
Current Opponent ELO-134.7
Current ELO Difference269.3
Expected score0.37
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hodonín

W
Havířov0–1Hodonín1 Nov · away
Pick: Hodonín 47% · hit
L
Hodonín1–2Uherský Brod24 Oct · home
Pick: Uherský Brod 41% · hit
L
Uničov3–2Hodonín18 Oct · away
Pick: Uničov 50% · hit
L
Hodonín0–2Vítkovice29 Aug · home
Pick: Hodonín 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Polanka nad Odrou

W
Polanka nad Odrou4–2Vrchovina1 Nov · home
Pick: Vrchovina 41% · missed
L
Polanka nad Odrou0–5Sigma Olomouc II25 Oct · home
Pick: Sigma Olomouc II 50% · hit
L
Havířov3–1Polanka nad Odrou18 Oct · away
Pick: Polanka nad Odrou 42% · missed
L
Uničov3–1Polanka nad Odrou4 Oct · away
Pick: Uničov 56% · hit
L
Polanka nad Odrou0–1Hranice30 Aug · home
Pick: Hranice 41% · hit

About this match

Hodonín and Polanka nad Odrou meet in 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion U Cervenych domku, Hodonin. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hodonín win 45.8%, draw 25.7%, Polanka nad Odrou win 28.6%. The pick is Hodonín win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.9%. Both teams to score: 60.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.