ScoreProb
3. liga - MSFL Czechia MSFL - 15 2026

Vrchovina vs Sigma Olomouc II

Vrchovina Home · Elo 1,560
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sigma Olomouc II Away · Elo 1,544
Stadium Nove Mesto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sigma Olomouc II win
Vrchovina win
32.5%
Draw
22.2%
Sigma Olomouc II winPick
45.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%

How much we know

Vrchovina history62 matches
Sigma Olomouc II history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sigma Olomouc II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,560 against 1,544. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Vrchovina score more

    1.84 goals a game over 62 matches for Vrchovina, against 1.61 over 62 for Sigma Olomouc II.

  • Defences are close

    Vrchovina concede 1.44 a game, Sigma Olomouc II 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Vrchovina matches, against 63% for Sigma Olomouc II. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vrchovina
Sigma Olomouc II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1560.4
ELO
1543.7
62
ELO · Matches
62
1560.4
Current Team ELO
1543.7
1543.7
Current Opponent ELO
1560.4
16.68
Current ELO Difference
-16.68
0.52
Expected score
0.48
62
History Matches
62
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
52.83
Overperformance
52.15
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
0.80
Goals for per game
2.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.10
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
2.26
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
3.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
62
1.71
PPG
1.34
50.0%
Win rate
38.7%
21.0%
Draw rate
17.7%
29.0%
Loss rate
43.5%
79.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
62.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
34
2.00
PPG
1.24
57.1%
Win rate
35.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
17.6%
14.3%
Loss rate
47.1%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
28
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.84
Goals for per game
1.61
74.2%
Scoring rate
69.4%
51.6%
BTTS rate
45.2%
2.21
Goals for per game
1.74
85.7%
Scoring rate
73.5%
60.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
62
History Matches
62
1.84
Goals Mean
1.61
1.55
Goals Std
1.55
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
53.2%
Scored 2+ rate
45.2%
37.1%
Scored 3+ rate
29.0%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.31
72.6%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.38
67.9%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.25
Goals against per game
0.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
62
History Matches
62
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.57
Conceded Std
1.13
37.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
62
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
2.29
Goal Difference Std
2.15
5.96
Stability score
5.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
62
26
Lead Matches
16
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.85
16
Trailing Matches
18
25.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
76.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
35
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.50
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.42
Portability PPG Std
1.06
1.17
Portability PPG Range
2.67
54.31
Portability Score
32.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO16.68
PPG0.37
GF0.23
GA0.13
PPG-1.25
PPG0.76
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate4.8%
Scored 2+ rate8.1%
Scored 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.44
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.26
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score0.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.08
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate11.1%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate2.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.75
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.64
Portability PPG Range-1.50
Portability Score22.18
Rest days0.74
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO16.68
Current Opponent ELO-16.68
Current ELO Difference33.35
Expected score0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vrchovina

L
Polanka nad Odrou4–2Vrchovina1 Nov · away
Pick: Vrchovina 41% · missed
W
Vrchovina2–0Havířov24 Oct · home
Pick: Vrchovina 55% · hit
L
Uherský Brod4–0Vrchovina17 Oct · away
Pick: Uherský Brod 52% · hit
W
Vrchovina1–0Karviná II29 Aug · home
Pick: Vrchovina 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sigma Olomouc II

W
Sigma Olomouc II5–1Hranice31 Oct · home
Pick: Sigma Olomouc II 61% · hit
W
Polanka nad Odrou0–5Sigma Olomouc II25 Oct · away
Pick: Sigma Olomouc II 50% · hit
W
Sigma Olomouc II3–1Karviná II18 Oct · home
Pick: Sigma Olomouc II 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vrchovina and Sigma Olomouc II meet in 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadium Nove Mesto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Vrchovina win 32.5%, draw 22.2%, Sigma Olomouc II win 45.2%. The pick is Sigma Olomouc II win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.4%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.