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3. SNL - West Slovenia West - 14 2026

IB 1975 Ljubljana vs Šencur

IB 1975 Ljubljana Home · Elo 1,466
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Šencur Away · Elo 1,548
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Šencur win
IB 1975 Ljubljana win
20.9%
Draw
19.8%
Šencur winPick
59.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%

How much we know

IB 1975 Ljubljana history21 matches
Šencur history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.3%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Šencur are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Šencur are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,548 against 1,466. On rating alone Šencur would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Šencur score more

    1.24 goals a game over 21 matches for IB 1975 Ljubljana, against 1.80 over 20 for Šencur.

  • Šencur concede fewer

    IB 1975 Ljubljana concede 2.05 a game, Šencur 1.25.

  • IB 1975 Ljubljana games more often go over 2.5 goals

    76% of IB 1975 Ljubljana matches, against 65% for Šencur. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
IB 1975 Ljubljana
Šencur@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1465.5
ELO
1548.0
21
ELO · Matches
20
1465.5
Current Team ELO
1548.0
1548.0
Current Opponent ELO
1465.5
-82.47
Current ELO Difference
82.47
0.38
Expected score
0.62
21
History Matches
20
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.14
46.02
Overperformance
56.90
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.10
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.48
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
21
Matches
20
1.24
PPG
1.85
38.1%
Win rate
55.0%
9.5%
Draw rate
20.0%
52.4%
Loss rate
25.0%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
76.2%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
8
1.18
PPG
1.75
36.4%
Win rate
50.0%
9.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
54.5%
Loss rate
25.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
11
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
1.80
71.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.50
72.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
45.5%
BTTS rate
62.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
3.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
21
History Matches
20
1.24
Goals Mean
1.80
1.02
Goals Std
1.33
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
38.1%
Scored 2+ rate
55.0%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
35.0%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.05
Goals against per game
1.25
85.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.64
Goals against per game
1.13
72.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
21
History Matches
20
2.05
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.53
Conceded Std
0.94
52.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
38.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
21
History Matches
20
0.85
Result entropy
0.91
2.30
Goal Difference Std
1.75
15.32
Stability score
9.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
19
5
Lead Matches
6
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.89
8
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
19
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.37
1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.94
Rest days
83.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
7
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
21
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-82.47
PPG-0.61
GF-0.56
GA0.80
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.57
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate8.6%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.80
Conceded Std0.58
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate28.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.46
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.56
Stability score6.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.68
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.51
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO-82.47
Current Opponent ELO82.47
Current ELO Difference-164.9
Expected score-0.23
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.22
Overperformance-10.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

IB 1975 Ljubljana

D
IB 1975 Ljubljana0–0Dob31 Oct · home
Pick: Dob 66% · missed
W
Rudar Trbovlje1–2IB 1975 Ljubljana28 Oct · away
Pick: Rudar Trbovlje 64% · missed
D
IB 1975 Ljubljana1–1Vipava17 Oct · home
Pick: IB 1975 Ljubljana 50% · missed
L
Tolmin1–0IB 1975 Ljubljana29 Aug · away
Pick: Tolmin 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Šencur

W
Šencur4–1Vipava31 Oct · home
Pick: Šencur 75% · hit
L
Adria2–1Šencur28 Oct · away
Pick: Šencur 63% · missed
L
Litija7–0Šencur17 Oct · away
Pick: Šencur 73% · missed
D
Škofja Loka1–1Šencur29 Aug · away
Pick: Šencur 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

IB 1975 Ljubljana and Šencur meet in 3. SNL - West on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: IB 1975 Ljubljana win 20.9%, draw 19.8%, Šencur win 59.3%. The pick is Šencur win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.6%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.