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3. SNL - West Slovenia West - 14 2026

Litija vs Izola

Litija Home · Elo 1,482
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Izola Away · Elo 1,559
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Izola win
Litija win
6.4%
Draw
12.5%
Izola winPick
81.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.0%
Under 2.525.0%

How much we know

Litija history2 matches
Izola history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (81.1%). Picks in that band won 83.1% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 177 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Izola are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Izola are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,559 against 1,482. On rating alone Izola would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Izola score far more

    0.50 goals a game over 2 matches for Litija, against 2.65 over 20 for Izola.

  • Izola concede fewer

    Litija concede 3.00 a game, Izola 1.30.

  • Litija games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Litija matches, against 80% for Izola. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Litija
Izola@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.9
ELO
1559.3
2
ELO · Matches
20
1481.9
Current Team ELO
1559.3
1559.3
Current Opponent ELO
1481.9
-77.42
Current ELO Difference
77.42
0.39
Expected score
0.61
2
History Matches
20
-0.45
Residual Mean
0.17
45.90
Overperformance
58.27
-0.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.60
0.50
Goals for per game
3.00
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
2.50
0.50
Goals for per game
3.30
3.00
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.30
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
20
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
8
0.00
PPG
2.50
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
1
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.50
Goals for per game
2.65
50.0%
Scoring rate
95.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
4.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2
History Matches
20
0.50
Goals Mean
2.65
0.50
Goals Std
1.35
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
95.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
80.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
3.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.00
Goals against per game
1.30
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
2
History Matches
20
3.00
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.00
Conceded Std
1.05
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
20
0.00
Result entropy
0.86
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.90
100.0
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
18
0
Lead Matches
8
—
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.88
2
Trailing Matches
1
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
1.39
1.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.90
Rest days
84.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
14
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
0
Long Rest History Matches
5
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
1
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-77.42
PPG-2.00
GF-2.15
GA1.70
PPG-3.00
PPG-2.50
PPG-2.60
PPG-2.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate45.0%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-18
Goals Mean-2.15
Goals Std-0.85
Scored 1+ rate-0.45
Scored 2+ rate-0.80
Scored 3+ rate-0.50
Venue Goals Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean1.70
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate70.0%
Conceded 3+ rate35.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.86
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score86.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-8
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-1.39
First Half Goals Against Mean1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.61
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-5.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.71
Long Rest History Matches-5
Current Team ELO-77.42
Current Opponent ELO77.42
Current ELO Difference-154.8
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.62
Overperformance-12.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.75

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Litija

L
Litija0–2Tolmin4 Nov · home
Pick: Tolmin 69% · hit
W
Škofja Loka1–3Litija31 Oct · away
Pick: Škofja Loka 67% · missed
L
Litija0–1Svoboda24 Oct · home
Pick: Svoboda 52% · hit
W
Litija7–0Šencur17 Oct · home
Pick: Šencur 73% · missed
W
Vipava0–4Litija4 Oct · away
Pick: Vipava 52% · missed

Izola

W
Izola2–1Zidgrad Idrija31 Oct · home
Pick: Izola 63% · hit
D
Svoboda1–1Izola28 Oct · away
Pick: Izola 68% · missed
W
Izola11–1Rudar Trbovlje17 Oct · home
Pick: Izola 57% · hit
W
Izola11–0Vipava29 Aug · home
Pick: Izola 71% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Litija and Izola meet in 3. SNL - West on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Litija win 6.4%, draw 12.5%, Izola win 81.1%. The pick is Izola win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.0%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.