ScoreProb
Liga 3 Georgia Round 27 2026

Irao vs WIT Georgia

Irao Home · Elo 1,524
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
WIT Georgia Away · Elo 1,542
Grigol Jomartidze Stadium, Khashuri Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Irao win
Irao winPick
39.2%
Draw
25.5%
WIT Georgia win
35.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.0%
Under 2.540.0%

How much we know

Irao history51 matches
WIT Georgia history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Irao are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,524 against 1,542. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.82 goals a game over 51 matches for Irao, against 1.92 over 51 for WIT Georgia.

  • WIT Georgia concede fewer

    Irao concede 1.27 a game, WIT Georgia 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Irao matches, against 57% for WIT Georgia. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Irao
WIT Georgia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.0
ELO
1542.2
51
ELO · Matches
51
1524.0
Current Team ELO
1542.2
1542.2
Current Opponent ELO
1524.0
-18.20
Current ELO Difference
18.20
0.47
Expected score
0.53
51
History Matches
51
0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
51.44
Overperformance
52.92
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
51
1.57
PPG
1.67
43.1%
Win rate
45.1%
27.5%
Draw rate
31.4%
29.4%
Loss rate
23.5%
84.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
62.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.9%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
39.2%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.52
PPG
1.68
44.0%
Win rate
48.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
24.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
28.0%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
72.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
48.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.82
Goals for per game
1.92
88.2%
Scoring rate
78.4%
58.8%
BTTS rate
54.9%
1.88
Goals for per game
1.72
92.0%
Scoring rate
76.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
44.0%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.59
88.2%
Scoring rate
64.7%
52.9%
BTTS rate
41.2%
51
History Matches
51
1.82
Goals Mean
1.92
1.29
Goals Std
1.69
88.2%
Scored 1+ rate
78.4%
51.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.9%
29.4%
Scored 3+ rate
29.4%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.02
68.6%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.36
Goals against per game
0.96
68.0%
Conceding rate
68.0%
0.94
Goals against per game
0.88
64.7%
Conceding rate
70.6%
51
History Matches
51
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.14
Conceded Std
0.83
39.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.5%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.9%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
51
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.92
Goal Difference Std
2.04
1.92
Stability score
3.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
50
21
Lead Matches
18
76.2%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.78
12
Trailing Matches
11
33.3%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.88
Rest days
85.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
18
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
1.76
PPG
1.65
52.9%
Win rate
47.1%
17.6%
Draw rate
23.5%
29.4%
Loss rate
29.4%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
17
Current Competition Matches
17
1.76
Current Competition PPG
1.65
0.82
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.71
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.30
Portability PPG Range
0.09
77.04
Portability Score
92.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-18.20
PPG-0.10
GF-0.10
GA0.25
PPG0.12
PPG-0.16
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate2.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate9.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.65
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate2.0%
Conceded 2+ rate11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate11.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.71
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-1.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate9.5%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.12
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.12
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-15.02
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO-18.20
Current Opponent ELO18.20
Current ELO Difference-36.40
Expected score-0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Irao

D
Irao1–1Dinamo Tbilisi II23 Oct · home
Pick: Irao 55% · missed
L
Gonio1–0Irao16 Oct · away
Pick: Gonio 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

WIT Georgia

L
Guria1–0WIT Georgia30 Oct · away
Pick: Guria 55% · hit
L
Dinamo Tbilisi II3–1WIT Georgia16 Oct · away
Pick: WIT Georgia 47% · missed
W
WIT Georgia2–0Gonio8 Oct · home
Pick: WIT Georgia 41% · hit
W
WIT Georgia2–1Lokomotivi Tbilisi9 Sep · home
Pick: WIT Georgia 50% · hit
W
WIT Georgia2–1Iberia 201026 Aug · home
Pick: WIT Georgia 87% · hit

About this match

Irao and WIT Georgia meet in Liga 3 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Grigol Jomartidze Stadium, Khashuri. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Irao win 39.2%, draw 25.5%, WIT Georgia win 35.3%. The pick is Irao win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.0%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.