Iskra vs Jedinstvo
What we said before kickoff Result: Jedinstvo win
Iskra winPick
51.5%
Draw
26.3%
Jedinstvo win Result
22.2%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickIskra win · 51.5%
What happenedJedinstvo win · we gave it 22.2%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.9%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 50.6%
What happenedNo · 0–2
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Jedinstvo win. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
22%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 4.5
on average A pick at 51% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes50.6%
No49.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
How much we know
Iskra history63 matches
Jedinstvo history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 07:01 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full time: 0–2None of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Iskra are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Iskra are rated 98 Elo points higher
Elo 1,557 against 1,458. On rating alone Iskra would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Iskra score more
1.40 goals a game over 63 matches for Iskra, against 1.03 over 59 for Jedinstvo.
-
Iskra concede fewer
Iskra concede 1.11 a game, Jedinstvo 1.42.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
46% of Iskra matches, against 42% for Jedinstvo. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jedinstvo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1556.6
ELO
1458.1
63
ELO · Matches
59
1556.6
Current Team ELO
1458.1
1458.1
Current Opponent ELO
1556.6
98.49
Current ELO Difference
-98.49
0.64
Expected score
0.36
63
History Matches
59
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
53.63
Overperformance
47.91
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals 90
63
Matches
59
1.60
PPG
1.08
42.9%
Win rate
27.1%
31.7%
Draw rate
27.1%
25.4%
Loss rate
45.8%
68.3%
Over 1.5 rate
64.4%
46.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals 100
33
Matches
28
1.52
PPG
0.89
39.4%
Win rate
17.9%
33.3%
Draw rate
35.7%
27.3%
Loss rate
46.4%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
46.4%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
33
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.03
73.0%
Scoring rate
61.0%
44.4%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.25
66.7%
Scoring rate
67.9%
42.4%
BTTS rate
60.7%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
59
1.40
Goals Mean
1.03
1.27
Goals Std
1.01
73.0%
Scored 1+ rate
61.0%
38.1%
Scored 2+ rate
33.9%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
6.8%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.42
60.3%
Conceding rate
74.6%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.89
60.6%
Conceding rate
85.7%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
59
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.16
Conceded Std
1.28
34.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.3%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.3%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.0%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.0%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
63
History Matches
59
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.48
2.11
Stability score
3.01
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
60
Eligible Matches
59
17
Lead Matches
10
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.83
15
Trailing Matches
16
46.7%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
72.79
Rest days
73.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
47
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
14
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.16
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.32
49.72
Portability Score
75.65
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
63
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO98.49
PPG0.52
GF0.36
GA-0.31
PPG0.00
PPG0.62
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate25.1%
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate12.0%
Scored 2+ rate4.2%
Scored 3+ rate10.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score-0.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.86
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate27.9%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range1.01
Portability Score-25.93
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.51
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO98.49
Current Opponent ELO-98.49
Current ELO Difference197.0
Expected score0.28
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Iskra
L
Iskra3–4Mogren25 Oct · home
Pick: Iskra 52% · missed L
Mladost DG4–0Iskra14 Oct · away
Pick: Mladost DG 51% · hit W
Iskra1–0Rudar6 Oct · home
Pick: Iskra 50% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Jedinstvo
W
Berane0–5Jedinstvo15 Oct · away
Pick: Jedinstvo 39% · hit W
Berane1–2Jedinstvo4 Oct · away
Pick: Jedinstvo 38% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Iskra and Jedinstvo finished 0–2 in Second League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–2 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC, before kickoff: Iskra win 51.5%, draw 26.3%, Jedinstvo win 22.2%. None of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.