ScoreProb
Pro League U23 United Arab Emirates Round 8 2026

Ittihad Kalba U23 vs Al Dhafra U23

Ittihad Kalba U23 Home · Elo 1,443
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Dhafra U23 Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ittihad Kalba U23 win
Ittihad Kalba U23 winPick
55.5%
Draw
15.9%
Al Dhafra U23 win
28.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes68.0%
No32.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.7%
Under 2.522.3%

How much we know

Ittihad Kalba U23 history15 matches
Al Dhafra U23 history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:55 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ittihad Kalba U23 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Dhafra U23 are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,475 against 1,443. On rating alone Al Dhafra U23 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Ittihad Kalba U23 score more

    2.00 goals a game over 15 matches for Ittihad Kalba U23, against 1.46 over 13 for Al Dhafra U23.

  • Al Dhafra U23 concede fewer

    Ittihad Kalba U23 concede 2.67 a game, Al Dhafra U23 2.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    80% of Ittihad Kalba U23 matches, against 77% for Al Dhafra U23. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ittihad Kalba U23
Al Dhafra U23
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1443.0
ELO
1475.3
15
ELO · Matches
13
1443.0
Current Team ELO
1475.3
1475.3
Current Opponent ELO
1443.0
-32.33
Current ELO Difference
32.33
0.45
Expected score
0.55
15
History Matches
13
-0.19
Residual Mean
-0.12
41.64
Overperformance
45.42
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
2.80
Goals against per game
3.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.70
2.30
Goals for per game
1.40
2.70
Goals against per game
2.50
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
15
Matches
13
0.67
PPG
1.00
13.3%
Win rate
23.1%
26.7%
Draw rate
30.8%
60.0%
Loss rate
46.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
76.9%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
53.8%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
7
Matches
8
1.00
PPG
0.75
28.6%
Win rate
12.5%
14.3%
Draw rate
37.5%
57.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
85.7%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
7
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.46
93.3%
Scoring rate
92.3%
86.7%
BTTS rate
92.3%
2.57
Goals for per game
1.38
85.7%
Scoring rate
87.5%
71.4%
BTTS rate
87.5%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
15
History Matches
13
2.00
Goals Mean
1.46
1.46
Goals Std
0.84
93.3%
Scored 1+ rate
92.3%
53.3%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
26.7%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
2.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.67
Goals against per game
2.23
93.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.57
Goals against per game
2.63
85.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
15
History Matches
13
2.67
Conceded Mean
2.23
1.30
Conceded Std
1.31
80.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
69.2%
60.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
2.57
Venue Conceded Mean
2.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
6.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
6.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
6.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
15
History Matches
13
0.84
Result entropy
0.96
2.12
Goal Difference Std
1.76
15.56
Stability score
3.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
12
3
Lead Matches
3
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.56
7
Trailing Matches
6
28.6%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
1.14
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
1.21
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.25
1.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.95
Rest days
76.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
7
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
7
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
15
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-32.33
PPG-0.33
GF0.54
GA0.44
PPG2.00
PPG0.25
PPG1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.54
Goals Std0.62
Scored 1+ rate1.0%
Scored 2+ rate14.9%
Scored 3+ rate11.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std1.01
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Conceded 2+ rate10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate36.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score11.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.78
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate33.3%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate11.9%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-32.33
Current Opponent ELO32.33
Current ELO Difference-64.67
Expected score-0.09
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-3.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ittihad Kalba U23

L
Ittihad Kalba U232–4Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U2331 Oct · home
Pick: Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 44% · hit
L
Al Jazira U233–1Ittihad Kalba U2319 Oct · away
Pick: Al Jazira U23 45% · hit
W
Ittihad Kalba U233–1United FC U2329 Aug · home
Pick: Ittihad Kalba U23 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Dhafra U23

W
Al Dhafra U231–0Al Wasl U2331 Oct · home
Pick: Al Wasl U23 44% · missed
W
United FC U231–5Al Dhafra U2317 Oct · away
Pick: United FC U23 65% · missed
D
Al Dhafra U231–1Khorfakkan U2330 Aug · home
Pick: Al Dhafra U23 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ittihad Kalba U23 and Al Dhafra U23 meet in Pro League U23 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:55 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ittihad Kalba U23 win 55.5%, draw 15.9%, Al Dhafra U23 win 28.6%. The pick is Ittihad Kalba U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.7%. Both teams to score: 68.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.