ScoreProb
Ettan - Södra Sweden Södra - 30 2026

Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg

Jonkopings Sodra Home · Elo 1,551
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Trelleborg Away · Elo 1,490
Stadsparksvallen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jonkopings Sodra win
Jonkopings Sodra winPick
38.5%
Draw
27.3%
Trelleborg win
34.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.7%
No47.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.0%
Under 2.551.0%

How much we know

Jonkopings Sodra history60 matches
Trelleborg history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Jonkopings Sodra are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Jonkopings Sodra are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,490. On rating alone Jonkopings Sodra would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 60 matches for Jonkopings Sodra, against 1.27 over 67 for Trelleborg.

  • Jonkopings Sodra concede fewer

    Jonkopings Sodra concede 0.88 a game, Trelleborg 1.55.

  • Trelleborg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Jonkopings Sodra matches, against 55% for Trelleborg. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jonkopings Sodra
Trelleborg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.2
ELO
1490.2
60
ELO · Matches
67
1551.2
Current Team ELO
1490.2
1490.2
Current Opponent ELO
1551.2
61.02
Current ELO Difference
-61.02
0.59
Expected score
0.41
60
History Matches
67
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.78
Overperformance
49.59
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.40
0.90
Goals for per game
1.70
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
67
1.73
PPG
1.21
50.0%
Win rate
31.3%
23.3%
Draw rate
26.9%
26.7%
Loss rate
41.8%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
33
2.38
PPG
1.21
72.4%
Win rate
36.4%
20.7%
Draw rate
12.1%
6.9%
Loss rate
51.5%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
13.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
29
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.27
73.3%
Scoring rate
67.2%
41.7%
BTTS rate
53.7%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.30
86.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
37.9%
BTTS rate
51.5%
1.33
Goals for per game
2.17
66.7%
Scoring rate
88.9%
44.4%
BTTS rate
72.2%
60
History Matches
67
1.37
Goals Mean
1.27
1.14
Goals Std
1.29
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.2%
43.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.3%
15.0%
Scored 3+ rate
13.4%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.88
Goals against per game
1.55
56.7%
Conceding rate
76.1%
0.48
Goals against per game
1.79
37.9%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.11
61.1%
Conceding rate
72.2%
60
History Matches
67
0.88
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.02
Conceded Std
1.24
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.8%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
0.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
62.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
62.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
67
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.90
5.46
Stability score
1.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
64
22
Lead Matches
21
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.73
12
Trailing Matches
20
16.7%
Non-loss rate
15.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
32
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
26
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.84
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
1.28
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
55.6%
27.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
38.9%
Loss rate
11.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.28
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.28
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.06
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.79
Portability PPG Range
1.29
60.54
Portability Score
45.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO61.02
PPG0.52
GF0.10
GA-0.67
PPG-0.72
PPG1.17
PPG0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate19.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate37.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate6.2%
Scored 2+ rate9.0%
Scored 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.67
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate19.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score3.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate19.7%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate1.7%
Trailing Win Rate3.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.72
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.78
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score15.00
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.81
Current Team ELO61.02
Current Opponent ELO-61.02
Current ELO Difference122.0
Expected score0.17
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jonkopings Sodra

L
Lund1–0Jonkopings Sodra31 Oct · away
Pick: Lund 46% · hit
W
Trollhättan2–4Jonkopings Sodra24 Oct · away
Pick: Jonkopings Sodra 41% · hit
W
Jonkopings Sodra2–1AFC Malmo17 Oct · home
Pick: Jonkopings Sodra 53% · hit
W
Angelholms FF0–1Jonkopings Sodra29 Aug · away
Pick: Jonkopings Sodra 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Trelleborg

W
Trelleborg2–1Laholm1 Nov · home
Pick: Trelleborg 62% · hit
W
Trelleborg3–1Atvidabergs FF25 Oct · home
Pick: Trelleborg 48% · hit
W
Lund2–4Trelleborg16 Oct · away
Pick: Trelleborg 42% · hit
W
Olympic0–2Trelleborg4 Oct · away
Pick: Trelleborg 48% · hit
W
Trelleborg2–1Utsikten30 Aug · home
Pick: Trelleborg 69% · hit

About this match

Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg meet in Ettan - Södra on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadsparksvallen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Jonkopings Sodra win 38.5%, draw 27.3%, Trelleborg win 34.2%. The pick is Jonkopings Sodra win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.0%. Both teams to score: 52.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.