ScoreProb
Ettan - Södra Sweden Södra - 30 2026

Rosengård vs AFC Malmo

Rosengård Home · Elo 1,513
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
AFC Malmo Away · Elo 1,518
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rosengård win
Rosengård winPick
47.0%
Draw
21.4%
AFC Malmo win
31.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.0%
Under 2.539.0%

How much we know

Rosengård history59 matches
AFC Malmo history18 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Rosengård are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,513 against 1,518. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • AFC Malmo score more

    1.32 goals a game over 59 matches for Rosengård, against 2.00 over 18 for AFC Malmo.

  • Rosengård concede fewer

    Rosengård concede 1.47 a game, AFC Malmo 1.67.

  • AFC Malmo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Rosengård matches, against 72% for AFC Malmo. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rosengård
AFC Malmo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.8
ELO
1517.6
59
ELO · Matches
18
1512.8
Current Team ELO
1517.6
1517.6
Current Opponent ELO
1512.8
-4.74
Current ELO Difference
4.74
0.49
Expected score
0.51
59
History Matches
18
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
49.68
Overperformance
52.34
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
2.20
1.30
Goals against per game
2.20
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
18
1.29
PPG
1.56
33.9%
Win rate
44.4%
27.1%
Draw rate
22.2%
39.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
30.5%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
9
1.17
PPG
1.67
33.3%
Win rate
44.4%
16.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
22.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
24
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.32
Goals for per game
2.00
72.9%
Scoring rate
88.9%
59.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
88.9%
62.5%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.94
77.8%
Scoring rate
88.2%
61.1%
BTTS rate
64.7%
59
History Matches
18
1.32
Goals Mean
2.00
1.13
Goals Std
1.25
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
39.0%
Scored 2+ rate
61.1%
15.3%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
2.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.67
83.1%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.58
Goals against per game
1.56
87.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.47
72.2%
Conceding rate
76.5%
59
History Matches
18
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.13
Conceded Std
1.45
39.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
18
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.94
0.98
Stability score
3.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
18
15
Lead Matches
8
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.88
16
Trailing Matches
5
18.8%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
36
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
20
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
17
1.56
PPG
1.65
38.9%
Win rate
47.1%
38.9%
Draw rate
23.5%
22.2%
Loss rate
29.4%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
18
Current Competition Matches
17
1.56
Current Competition PPG
1.65
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.47
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.19
Portability PPG Std
—
0.45
Portability PPG Range
—
72.96
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
18
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-4.74
PPG-0.27
GF-0.68
GA-0.19
PPG-0.09
PPG-0.50
PPG0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches41
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate16.0%
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate13.9%
History Matches41
Goals Mean-0.68
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-1.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches41
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches41
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-2.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches38
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches38
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.14
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO-4.74
Current Opponent ELO4.74
Current ELO Difference-9.49
Expected score-0.01
History Matches41
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-2.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rosengård

L
Skövde AIK3–2Rosengård31 Oct · away
Pick: Skövde AIK 40% · hit
L
Rosengård1–2Kristianstad24 Oct · home
Pick: Rosengård 49% · missed
D
Tvååker1–1Rosengård17 Oct · away
Pick: Tvååker 46% · missed
W
Rosengård3–2Trollhättan29 Aug · home
Pick: Rosengård 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

AFC Malmo

W
AFC Malmo6–3Trollhättan1 Nov · home
Pick: AFC Malmo 45% · hit
L
AFC Malmo2–3Angelholms FF24 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Malmo 51% · missed
L
Jonkopings Sodra2–1AFC Malmo17 Oct · away
Pick: Jonkopings Sodra 53% · hit
D
Laholm2–2AFC Malmo30 Aug · away
Pick: Laholm 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rosengård and AFC Malmo meet in Ettan - Södra on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rosengård win 47.0%, draw 21.4%, AFC Malmo win 31.6%. The pick is Rosengård win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.0%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.