ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster

Kidderminster Harriers Home · Elo 1,656
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Doncaster Away · Elo 1,527
Aggborough Stadium, Kidderminster Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Doncaster win
Kidderminster Harriers win
34.5%
Draw
29.3%
Doncaster winPick
36.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.8%
Under 2.541.2%

How much we know

Kidderminster Harriers history85 matches
Doncaster history94 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Doncaster are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kidderminster Harriers are rated 128 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,656 against 1,527. On rating alone Kidderminster Harriers would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Kidderminster Harriers score more

    1.80 goals a game over 85 matches for Kidderminster Harriers, against 1.50 over 94 for Doncaster.

  • Kidderminster Harriers concede fewer

    Kidderminster Harriers concede 1.04 a game, Doncaster 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Kidderminster Harriers matches, against 56% for Doncaster. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kidderminster Harriers
Doncaster
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1655.8
ELO
1527.4
85
ELO · Matches
94
1655.8
Current Team ELO
1527.4
1527.4
Current Opponent ELO
1655.8
128.3
Current ELO Difference
-128.3
0.68
Expected score
0.32
85
History Matches
94
0.09
Residual Mean
0.01
57.18
Overperformance
50.93
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.50
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
94
1.86
PPG
1.56
54.1%
Win rate
44.7%
23.5%
Draw rate
22.3%
22.4%
Loss rate
33.0%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
79.8%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.6%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
48
2.02
PPG
1.58
59.5%
Win rate
45.8%
23.8%
Draw rate
20.8%
16.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
42
History Matches
48
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.80
Goals for per game
1.50
90.6%
Scoring rate
76.6%
55.3%
BTTS rate
54.3%
1.93
Goals for per game
1.48
92.9%
Scoring rate
72.9%
54.8%
BTTS rate
47.9%
85
History Matches
94
1.80
Goals Mean
1.50
1.39
Goals Std
1.24
90.6%
Scored 1+ rate
76.6%
43.5%
Scored 2+ rate
43.6%
24.7%
Scored 3+ rate
21.3%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.04
Goals against per game
1.29
60.0%
Conceding rate
73.4%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.25
57.1%
Conceding rate
68.8%
85
History Matches
94
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.13
Conceded Std
1.20
28.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.9%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
94
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.91
8.28
Stability score
3.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
85
Eligible Matches
94
42
Lead Matches
33
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
84.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.89
14
Trailing Matches
29
21.4%
Non-loss rate
34.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
94
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.15
Rest days
73.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
10
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
71
Normal Rest History Matches
73
1.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
9
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.98
50.64
Portability Score
62.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
94
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO128.3
PPG0.29
GF0.30
GA-0.25
PPG0.44
PPG1.20
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate11.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate14.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score4.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.52
Portability Score-11.52
Rest days3.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match1.20
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.46
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Current Team ELO128.3
Current Opponent ELO-128.3
Current ELO Difference256.7
Expected score0.35
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kidderminster Harriers

L
Solihull Moors2–1Kidderminster Harriers31 Oct · away
Pick: Kidderminster Harriers 61% · missed
D
Altrincham0–0Kidderminster Harriers27 Oct · away
Pick: Kidderminster Harriers 52% · missed
L
Kidderminster Harriers1–2Worthing24 Oct · home
Pick: Kidderminster Harriers 37% · missed
W
Kidderminster Harriers2–1Solihull Moors17 Oct · home
Pick: Kidderminster Harriers 43% · hit
D
Kidderminster Harriers1–1Barrow31 Aug · home
Pick: Kidderminster Harriers 58% · missed

Doncaster

W
Rochdale1–4Doncaster3 Nov · away
Pick: Rochdale 43% · missed
L
Milton Keynes Dons6–1Doncaster31 Oct · away
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 49% · hit
L
Luton3–1Doncaster27 Oct · away
Pick: Luton 46% · hit
W
Doncaster2–0Sheffield Wednesday24 Oct · home
Pick: Doncaster 47% · hit
L
Doncaster0–2Stockport County20 Oct · home
Pick: Doncaster 38% · missed

About this match

Kidderminster Harriers and Doncaster meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Aggborough Stadium, Kidderminster. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kidderminster Harriers win 34.5%, draw 29.3%, Doncaster win 36.1%. The pick is Doncaster win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.8%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.