ScoreProb
NB I Hungary Round 13 2026

Kisvarda FC vs Puskas Academy

Kisvarda FC Home · Elo 1,491
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Puskas Academy Away · Elo 1,545
Varkert Stadium, Kisvarda Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Puskas Academy win
Kisvarda FC win
36.7%
Draw
25.5%
Puskas Academy winPick
37.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%

How much we know

Kisvarda FC history69 matches
Puskas Academy history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Puskas Academy are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Puskas Academy are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,545 against 1,491. On rating alone Puskas Academy would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.36 goals a game over 69 matches for Kisvarda FC, against 1.35 over 66 for Puskas Academy.

  • Defences are close

    Kisvarda FC concede 1.39 a game, Puskas Academy 1.35.

  • Kisvarda FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Kisvarda FC matches, against 45% for Puskas Academy. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kisvarda FC
Puskas Academy@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.7
ELO
1544.6
69
ELO · Matches
66
1490.7
Current Team ELO
1544.6
1544.6
Current Opponent ELO
1490.7
-53.90
Current ELO Difference
53.90
0.42
Expected score
0.58
69
History Matches
66
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
49.53
Overperformance
52.65
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
66
1.43
PPG
1.44
40.6%
Win rate
40.9%
21.7%
Draw rate
21.2%
37.7%
Loss rate
37.9%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
55.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
33
1.71
PPG
1.48
48.6%
Win rate
42.4%
25.7%
Draw rate
21.2%
25.7%
Loss rate
36.4%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
35
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.35
75.4%
Scoring rate
78.8%
55.1%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.51
Goals for per game
1.30
74.3%
Scoring rate
81.8%
51.4%
BTTS rate
57.6%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
69
History Matches
66
1.36
Goals Mean
1.35
1.18
Goals Std
1.05
75.4%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
37.9%
17.4%
Scored 3+ rate
13.6%
1.51
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.39
Goals against per game
1.35
73.9%
Conceding rate
80.3%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.21
65.7%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
69
History Matches
66
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.23
Conceded Std
0.98
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.9%
17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.6%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
66
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.36
3.01
Stability score
3.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
66
17
Lead Matches
18
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.80
22
Trailing Matches
22
40.9%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
22.7%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.09
Rest days
77.18
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
33
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.40
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.69
47.81
Portability Score
44.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-53.90
PPG0.00
GF0.01
GA0.04
PPG-1.40
PPG0.23
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score-0.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.65
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate16.0%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate13.6%
Trailing Win Rate4.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score3.50
Rest days-1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO-53.90
Current Opponent ELO53.90
Current ELO Difference-107.8
Expected score-0.15
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kisvarda FC

L
Pécsi MFC4–2Kisvarda FC28 Oct · away
Pick: Pécsi MFC 48% · hit
D
Zalaegerszegi TE1–1Kisvarda FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Kisvarda FC 43% · missed
D
Kisvarda FC1–1Ferencvarosi TC18 Oct · home
Pick: Ferencvarosi TC 38% · missed
D
Kisvarda FC1–1Gyori ETO FC30 Aug · home
Pick: Gyori ETO FC 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Puskas Academy

L
Puskas Academy1–3Debreceni VSC1 Nov · home
Pick: Puskas Academy 55% · missed
W
Diosgyori VTK1–2Puskas Academy28 Oct · away
Pick: Puskas Academy 42% · hit
W
Ujpest0–1Puskas Academy17 Oct · away
Pick: Puskas Academy 40% · hit
L
Puskas Academy1–2Ferencvarosi TC30 Aug · home
Pick: Puskas Academy 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kisvarda FC and Puskas Academy meet in NB I on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Varkert Stadium, Kisvarda. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kisvarda FC win 36.7%, draw 25.5%, Puskas Academy win 37.8%. The pick is Puskas Academy win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.2%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.