ScoreProb
NB I Hungary Round 13 2026

Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE

Paks Home · Elo 1,564
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zalaegerszegi TE Away · Elo 1,547
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Paks win
Paks winPick
67.2%
Draw
14.8%
Zalaegerszegi TE win
17.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.7%
No37.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.0%
Under 2.533.0%

How much we know

Paks history84 matches
Zalaegerszegi TE history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Paks are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,564 against 1,547. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Paks score more

    2.20 goals a game over 84 matches for Paks, against 1.51 over 71 for Zalaegerszegi TE.

  • Defences are close

    Paks concede 1.45 a game, Zalaegerszegi TE 1.32.

  • Paks games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Paks matches, against 51% for Zalaegerszegi TE. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Paks
Zalaegerszegi TE@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.8
ELO
1546.9
84
ELO · Matches
71
1563.8
Current Team ELO
1546.9
1546.9
Current Opponent ELO
1563.8
16.91
Current ELO Difference
-16.91
0.52
Expected score
0.48
84
History Matches
71
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
53.06
Overperformance
52.14
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
2.10
Goals for per game
1.70
2.60
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
71
1.69
PPG
1.39
47.6%
Win rate
36.6%
26.2%
Draw rate
29.6%
26.2%
Loss rate
33.8%
86.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.6%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.7%
45.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
38
1.86
PPG
1.13
53.5%
Win rate
28.9%
25.6%
Draw rate
26.3%
20.9%
Loss rate
44.7%
88.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
72.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
55.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.66
43
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.20
Goals for per game
1.51
83.3%
Scoring rate
73.2%
64.3%
BTTS rate
52.1%
2.56
Goals for per game
1.50
90.7%
Scoring rate
71.1%
72.1%
BTTS rate
55.3%
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
20.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
84
History Matches
71
2.20
Goals Mean
1.51
1.82
Goals Std
1.81
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
73.2%
61.9%
Scored 2+ rate
39.4%
32.1%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
2.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.32
75.0%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.66
76.7%
Conceding rate
78.9%
2.40
Goals against per game
2.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
84
History Matches
71
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.26
Conceded Std
1.21
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.6%
20.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.7%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
80.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
71
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
2.22
Goal Difference Std
2.28
3.96
Stability score
0.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
70
35
Lead Matches
16
77.1%
Lead Win Rate
56.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.65
16
Trailing Matches
20
18.8%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
75.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.64
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
31
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.71
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
0.60
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.80
10
Competition Season Count
6
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.60
Portability PPG Range
1.73
49.53
Portability Score
46.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO16.91
PPG0.30
GF0.70
GA0.13
PPG0.80
PPG0.73
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.70
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate10.1%
Scored 2+ rate22.5%
Scored 3+ rate15.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score3.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.41
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate20.9%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.80
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score2.83
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.66
Current Team ELO16.91
Current Opponent ELO-16.91
Current ELO Difference33.82
Expected score0.05
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Paks

L
Ferencvarosi TC2–0Paks1 Nov · away
Pick: Ferencvarosi TC 51% · hit
W
Cigand SE1–2Paks28 Oct · away
Pick: Cigand SE 40% · missed
L
Paks1–2Gyori ETO FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Gyori ETO FC 43% · hit
D
Nyiregyhaza1–1Paks29 Aug · away
Pick: Paks 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Zalaegerszegi TE

W
Zalaegerszegi TE3–1Gyori ETO FC28 Oct · home
Pick: Gyori ETO FC 50% · missed
D
Zalaegerszegi TE1–1Kisvarda FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Kisvarda FC 43% · missed
L
Debreceni VSC3–0Zalaegerszegi TE18 Oct · away
Pick: Debreceni VSC 49% · hit
L
Budapest Honved1–0Zalaegerszegi TE29 Aug · away
Pick: Budapest Honved 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Paks and Zalaegerszegi TE meet in NB I on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Paks win 67.2%, draw 14.8%, Zalaegerszegi TE win 17.9%. The pick is Paks win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.0%. Both teams to score: 62.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.