ScoreProb
NB I Hungary Round 13 2026

MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved

MTK Budapest Home · Elo 1,510
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Budapest Honved Away · Elo 1,612
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: MTK Budapest win
MTK Budapest winPick
47.6%
Draw
21.6%
Budapest Honved win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.1%
Under 2.534.9%

How much we know

MTK Budapest history73 matches
Budapest Honved history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why MTK Budapest are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Budapest Honved are rated 103 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,612 against 1,510. On rating alone Budapest Honved would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.85 goals a game over 73 matches for MTK Budapest, against 1.79 over 62 for Budapest Honved.

  • Budapest Honved concede fewer

    MTK Budapest concede 1.75 a game, Budapest Honved 0.95.

  • MTK Budapest games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of MTK Budapest matches, against 60% for Budapest Honved. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
MTK Budapest
Budapest Honved@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1509.8
ELO
1612.5
73
ELO · Matches
62
1509.8
Current Team ELO
1612.5
1612.5
Current Opponent ELO
1509.8
-102.6
Current ELO Difference
102.6
0.36
Expected score
0.64
73
History Matches
62
0.02
Residual Mean
0.09
51.68
Overperformance
56.66
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.90
Goals for per game
2.30
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
62
1.30
PPG
1.90
34.2%
Win rate
56.5%
27.4%
Draw rate
21.0%
38.4%
Loss rate
22.6%
89.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
71.2%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
50.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.0%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
31
1.57
PPG
1.71
47.6%
Win rate
48.4%
14.3%
Draw rate
25.8%
38.1%
Loss rate
25.8%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
52.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
42
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.79
83.6%
Scoring rate
80.6%
67.1%
BTTS rate
54.8%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.55
90.5%
Scoring rate
74.2%
64.3%
BTTS rate
51.6%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
73
History Matches
62
1.85
Goals Mean
1.79
1.51
Goals Std
1.40
83.6%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
49.3%
Scored 2+ rate
54.8%
27.4%
Scored 3+ rate
25.8%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
0.95
78.1%
Conceding rate
66.1%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.97
73.8%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
73
History Matches
62
1.75
Conceded Mean
0.95
1.44
Conceded Std
0.87
50.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.2%
30.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.2%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
16.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
16.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
62
0.99
Result entropy
0.90
2.28
Goal Difference Std
1.69
0.85
Stability score
10.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
62
20
Lead Matches
21
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.78
29
Trailing Matches
7
34.5%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
6.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.01
Rest days
85.01
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.92
30
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.60
PPG
0.75
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
75.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.60
Current Competition PPG
0.75
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.94
Portability PPG Range
1.45
57.74
Portability Score
48.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-102.6
PPG-0.60
GF0.06
GA0.80
PPG0.85
PPG-0.14
PPG1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate2.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.37
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.80
Conceded Std0.57
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate26.5%
Conceded 3+ rate26.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches11
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.59
Stability score-9.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate8.6%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches22
Non-loss rate20.2%
Trailing Win Rate6.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.85
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.85
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.51
Portability Score9.19
Rest days-8.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.25
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-102.6
Current Opponent ELO102.6
Current ELO Difference-205.3
Expected score-0.29
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

MTK Budapest

W
Monori Se1–5MTK Budapest28 Oct · away
Pick: MTK Budapest 42% · hit
W
MTK Budapest1–0Vasas16 Oct · home
Pick: Vasas 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Budapest Honved

L
Gyirmot SE3–1Budapest Honved27 Oct · away
Pick: Gyirmot SE 47% · hit
L
Budapest Honved0–2Debreceni VSC24 Oct · home
Pick: Budapest Honved 51% · missed
W
Nyiregyhaza0–1Budapest Honved17 Oct · away
Pick: Budapest Honved 46% · hit
W
Budapest Honved1–0Zalaegerszegi TE29 Aug · home
Pick: Budapest Honved 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

MTK Budapest and Budapest Honved meet in NB I on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: MTK Budapest win 47.6%, draw 21.6%, Budapest Honved win 30.8%. The pick is MTK Budapest win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.1%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.