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J3 League Japan Round 17 2026

Kitakyushu vs Thespakusatsu Gunma

Kitakyushu Home · Elo 1,452
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Thespakusatsu Gunma Away · Elo 1,453
Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kitakyushu win
Kitakyushu winPick
57.7%
Draw
19.9%
Thespakusatsu Gunma win
22.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.0%
No45.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

Kitakyushu history71 matches
Thespakusatsu Gunma history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.7%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Kitakyushu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,452 against 1,453. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Thespakusatsu Gunma score more

    1.14 goals a game over 71 matches for Kitakyushu, against 1.42 over 66 for Thespakusatsu Gunma.

  • Kitakyushu concede fewer

    Kitakyushu concede 1.27 a game, Thespakusatsu Gunma 1.77.

  • Thespakusatsu Gunma games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Kitakyushu matches, against 56% for Thespakusatsu Gunma. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kitakyushu
Thespakusatsu Gunma@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.7
ELO
1453.4
71
ELO · Matches
66
1451.7
Current Team ELO
1453.4
1453.4
Current Opponent ELO
1451.7
-1.67
Current ELO Difference
1.67
0.50
Expected score
0.50
71
History Matches
66
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.03
46.64
Overperformance
47.39
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.70
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.00
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
66
1.30
PPG
1.15
36.6%
Win rate
30.3%
19.7%
Draw rate
24.2%
43.7%
Loss rate
45.5%
66.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
45.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.1%
22.5%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
33
1.25
PPG
1.15
34.4%
Win rate
33.3%
21.9%
Draw rate
15.2%
43.8%
Loss rate
51.5%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
15.6%
Over 3.5 rate
54.5%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
32
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.14
Goals for per game
1.42
76.1%
Scoring rate
72.7%
52.1%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.03
Goals for per game
1.48
81.3%
Scoring rate
81.8%
56.3%
BTTS rate
72.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
71
History Matches
66
1.14
Goals Mean
1.42
0.89
Goals Std
1.37
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
29.6%
Scored 2+ rate
40.9%
7.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.77
70.4%
Conceding rate
80.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.15
68.8%
Conceding rate
90.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.67
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
66
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.77
1.16
Conceded Std
1.40
35.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.5%
15.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.8%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
2.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
66
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.88
4.44
Stability score
3.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
65
18
Lead Matches
16
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.83
21
Trailing Matches
25
33.3%
Non-loss rate
16.0%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.79
Rest days
83.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
47
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
2
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.67
8
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.55
1.53
Portability PPG Range
1.21
47.91
Portability Score
47.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-1.67
PPG0.14
GF-0.28
GA-0.51
PPG1.00
PPG0.10
PPG0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std-0.48
Scored 1+ rate3.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.30
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score1.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.98
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate17.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.32
Portability Score0.13
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO-1.67
Current Opponent ELO1.67
Current ELO Difference-3.33
Expected score0.00
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kitakyushu

L
FC Gifu1–0Kitakyushu7 Nov · away
Pick: FC Gifu 53% · hit
L
Kitakyushu0–1Biwako Shiga3 Nov · home
Pick: Kitakyushu 50% · missed
W
Renofa Yamaguchi0–2Kitakyushu31 Oct · away
Pick: Renofa Yamaguchi 36% · missed
W
Kitakyushu3–1Parceiro Nagano25 Oct · home
Pick: Kitakyushu 46% · hit
L
Fukushima United2–1Kitakyushu21 Oct · away
Pick: Fukushima United 39% · hit

Thespakusatsu Gunma

L
Thespakusatsu Gunma1–2Osaka7 Nov · home
Pick: Osaka 43% · hit
L
Nara Club3–0Thespakusatsu Gunma3 Nov · away
Pick: Nara Club 50% · hit
L
Kanazawa4–0Thespakusatsu Gunma31 Oct · away
Pick: Kanazawa 55% · hit
W
Thespakusatsu Gunma1–0Kamatamare Sanuki24 Oct · home
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 38% · missed
L
Matsumoto Yamaga2–0Thespakusatsu Gunma21 Oct · away
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 52% · hit

About this match

Kitakyushu and Thespakusatsu Gunma meet in J3 League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kitakyushu win 57.7%, draw 19.9%, Thespakusatsu Gunma win 22.4%. The pick is Kitakyushu win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.