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J3 League Japan Round 17 2026

Fukushima United vs Sagamihara

Fukushima United Home · Elo 1,447
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sagamihara Away · Elo 1,531
Toho, Fukushima Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sagamihara win
Fukushima United win
30.3%
Draw
22.0%
Sagamihara winPick
47.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.2%
No39.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%

How much we know

Fukushima United history66 matches
Sagamihara history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Sagamihara are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sagamihara are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,447. On rating alone Sagamihara would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Fukushima United score more

    1.80 goals a game over 66 matches for Fukushima United, against 1.27 over 67 for Sagamihara.

  • Sagamihara concede fewer

    Fukushima United concede 1.94 a game, Sagamihara 1.37.

  • Fukushima United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Fukushima United matches, against 46% for Sagamihara. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fukushima United
Sagamihara@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1446.7
ELO
1530.9
66
ELO · Matches
67
1446.7
Current Team ELO
1530.9
1530.9
Current Opponent ELO
1446.7
-84.25
Current ELO Difference
84.25
0.38
Expected score
0.62
66
History Matches
67
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
47.11
Overperformance
52.10
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.20
2.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.90
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.99
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.01
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
67
1.26
PPG
1.43
34.8%
Win rate
37.3%
21.2%
Draw rate
31.3%
43.9%
Loss rate
31.3%
80.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
71.2%
Over 2.5 rate
46.3%
48.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
32
1.24
PPG
1.28
32.4%
Win rate
31.3%
26.5%
Draw rate
34.4%
41.2%
Loss rate
34.4%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
55.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
34
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.27
81.8%
Scoring rate
74.6%
68.2%
BTTS rate
52.2%
2.21
Goals for per game
1.25
85.3%
Scoring rate
71.9%
73.5%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
66
History Matches
67
1.80
Goals Mean
1.27
1.59
Goals Std
1.14
81.8%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
51.5%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
25.8%
Scored 3+ rate
13.4%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.94
Goals against per game
1.37
84.8%
Conceding rate
68.7%
1.94
Goals against per game
1.59
88.2%
Conceding rate
71.9%
2.67
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
66
History Matches
67
1.94
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.49
Conceded Std
1.45
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.3%
31.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.9%
1.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
67
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.91
3.73
Stability score
0.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
67
22
Lead Matches
21
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.76
18
Trailing Matches
16
27.8%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
1.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.79
Rest days
82.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
24
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.47
Portability PPG Range
1.02
44.87
Portability Score
56.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-84.25
PPG-0.18
GF0.53
GA0.57
PPG-2.33
PPG-0.05
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate7.2%
Scored 2+ rate20.2%
Scored 3+ rate12.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.96
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.81
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate20.2%
Conceded 3+ rate13.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.76
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.31
Stability score3.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate9.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.46
Portability Score-11.62
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO-84.25
Current Opponent ELO84.25
Current ELO Difference-168.5
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fukushima United

W
Fukushima United4–1FC Ryukyu7 Nov · home
Pick: Fukushima United 45% · hit
D
Tochigi SC0–0Fukushima United3 Nov · away
Pick: Tochigi SC 59% · missed
L
Fukushima United1–3Matsumoto Yamaga31 Oct · home
Pick: Fukushima United 37% · missed
W
Ehime FC2–4Fukushima United25 Oct · away
Pick: Ehime FC 57% · missed
W
Fukushima United2–1Kitakyushu21 Oct · home
Pick: Fukushima United 39% · hit

Sagamihara

W
Gainare Tottori0–1Sagamihara3 Nov · away
Pick: Sagamihara 47% · hit
W
Kochi United1–3Sagamihara31 Oct · away
Pick: Sagamihara 56% · hit
D
Sagamihara0–0Tochigi SC24 Oct · home
Pick: Sagamihara 45% · missed
L
FC Gifu2–1Sagamihara21 Oct · away
Pick: FC Gifu 48% · hit
W
Biwako Shiga0–2Sagamihara18 Oct · away
Pick: Sagamihara 47% · hit

About this match

Fukushima United and Sagamihara meet in J3 League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Toho, Fukushima. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Fukushima United win 30.3%, draw 22.0%, Sagamihara win 47.7%. The pick is Sagamihara win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.9%. Both teams to score: 60.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.