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J3 League Japan Round 17 2026

FC Gifu vs Matsumoto Yamaga

FC Gifu Home · Elo 1,516
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Matsumoto Yamaga Away · Elo 1,443
Gifu Memorial Center Nagaragawa Ball Field Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Gifu win
FC Gifu winPick
55.4%
Draw
19.6%
Matsumoto Yamaga win
25.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%

How much we know

FC Gifu history66 matches
Matsumoto Yamaga history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.4%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why FC Gifu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Gifu are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,443. On rating alone FC Gifu would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • FC Gifu score more

    1.44 goals a game over 66 matches for FC Gifu, against 1.26 over 66 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

  • Matsumoto Yamaga concede fewer

    FC Gifu concede 1.48 a game, Matsumoto Yamaga 1.30.

  • FC Gifu games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of FC Gifu matches, against 47% for Matsumoto Yamaga. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Gifu
Matsumoto Yamaga@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.8
ELO
1443.4
66
ELO · Matches
66
1515.8
Current Team ELO
1443.4
1443.4
Current Opponent ELO
1515.8
72.44
Current ELO Difference
-72.44
0.60
Expected score
0.40
66
History Matches
66
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
50.97
Overperformance
47.18
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.00
2.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
2.05
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
66
1.38
PPG
1.14
39.4%
Win rate
27.3%
19.7%
Draw rate
31.8%
40.9%
Loss rate
40.9%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
56.1%
Over 2.5 rate
47.0%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
31
1.36
PPG
1.00
39.4%
Win rate
25.8%
18.2%
Draw rate
22.6%
42.4%
Loss rate
51.6%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
33
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.26
74.2%
Scoring rate
69.7%
59.1%
BTTS rate
51.5%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.19
72.7%
Scoring rate
64.5%
60.6%
BTTS rate
48.4%
3.33
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
66
History Matches
66
1.44
Goals Mean
1.26
1.34
Goals Std
1.13
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
69.7%
42.4%
Scored 2+ rate
37.9%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
13.6%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
1.30
81.8%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.35
84.8%
Conceding rate
74.2%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.67
0.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
66
History Matches
66
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.22
Conceded Std
1.23
36.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.8%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.6%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
66
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.69
4.18
Stability score
1.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
66
19
Lead Matches
21
63.2%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.73
16
Trailing Matches
18
37.5%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.79
Rest days
83.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
23
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
0.67
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
3.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
7
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.25
1.10
Portability PPG Range
0.58
52.02
Portability Score
66.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO72.44
PPG0.24
GF0.18
GA0.18
PPG1.67
PPG0.36
PPG1.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate4.5%
Scored 2+ rate4.5%
Scored 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.85
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate1.5%
Conceded 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score2.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.14
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate9.7%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.51
Portability Score-14.49
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO72.44
Current Opponent ELO-72.44
Current ELO Difference144.9
Expected score0.21
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Gifu

W
FC Gifu1–0Kitakyushu7 Nov · home
Pick: FC Gifu 53% · hit
W
FC Ryukyu2–3FC Gifu3 Nov · away
Pick: FC Gifu 57% · hit
W
FC Gifu1–0Osaka31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Gifu 53% · hit
L
Roasso Kumamoto2–1FC Gifu25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Gifu 51% · missed
W
FC Gifu2–1Sagamihara21 Oct · home
Pick: FC Gifu 48% · hit

Matsumoto Yamaga

L
Matsumoto Yamaga0–1Kanazawa7 Nov · home
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 40% · missed
L
Kamatamare Sanuki1–0Matsumoto Yamaga3 Nov · away
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 40% · hit
W
Fukushima United1–3Matsumoto Yamaga31 Oct · away
Pick: Fukushima United 37% · missed
L
Matsumoto Yamaga0–2Renofa Yamaguchi25 Oct · home
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 45% · missed
W
Matsumoto Yamaga2–0Thespakusatsu Gunma21 Oct · home
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 52% · hit

About this match

FC Gifu and Matsumoto Yamaga meet in J3 League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Gifu Memorial Center Nagaragawa Ball Field. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: FC Gifu win 55.4%, draw 19.6%, Matsumoto Yamaga win 25.0%. The pick is FC Gifu win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.5%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.