ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Austria West - 15 2026

Kitzbühel vs Lochau

Kitzbühel Home · Elo 1,525
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lochau Away · Elo 1,518
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kitzbühel win
Kitzbühel winPick
64.8%
Draw
16.7%
Lochau win
18.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.8%
Under 2.530.2%

How much we know

Kitzbühel history51 matches
Lochau history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Kitzbühel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,525 against 1,518. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Lochau score more

    1.47 goals a game over 51 matches for Kitzbühel, against 1.69 over 36 for Lochau.

  • Kitzbühel concede fewer

    Kitzbühel concede 1.43 a game, Lochau 1.78.

  • Lochau games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Kitzbühel matches, against 69% for Lochau. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kitzbühel
Lochau
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.6
ELO
1517.8
51
ELO · Matches
36
1524.6
Current Team ELO
1517.8
1517.8
Current Opponent ELO
1524.6
6.84
Current ELO Difference
-6.84
0.51
Expected score
0.49
51
History Matches
36
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
52.21
Overperformance
51.90
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
2.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
2.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.06
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
36
1.43
PPG
1.56
43.1%
Win rate
47.2%
13.7%
Draw rate
13.9%
43.1%
Loss rate
38.9%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
69.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
17
1.70
PPG
1.35
51.9%
Win rate
41.2%
14.8%
Draw rate
11.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
47.1%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
27
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.69
70.6%
Scoring rate
77.8%
47.1%
BTTS rate
61.1%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.53
66.7%
Scoring rate
76.5%
33.3%
BTTS rate
64.7%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
51
History Matches
36
1.47
Goals Mean
1.69
1.38
Goals Std
1.43
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
41.2%
Scored 2+ rate
47.2%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
27.8%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.43
Goals against per game
1.78
70.6%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.94
59.3%
Conceding rate
82.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
51
History Matches
36
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.78
1.42
Conceded Std
1.78
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
36
0.91
Result entropy
0.91
2.19
Goal Difference Std
2.50
9.16
Stability score
9.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
36
21
Lead Matches
17
76.2%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.71
14
Trailing Matches
6
7.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.88
Rest days
77.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
16
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
1.00
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.11
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.75
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.34
1.18
Portability PPG Range
0.84
50.38
Portability Score
59.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO6.84
PPG-0.12
GF-0.22
GA-0.35
PPG1.25
PPG0.35
PPG1.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate23.1%
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches15
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.76
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.36
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.08
History Matches15
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score-0.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.78
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate5.6%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate7.1%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.34
Portability Score-8.88
Rest days-1.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Current Team ELO6.84
Current Opponent ELO-6.84
Current ELO Difference13.67
Expected score0.02
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kitzbühel

L
SK St. Johann2–0Kitzbühel31 Oct · away
Pick: Kitzbühel 50% · missed
W
Kitzbühel3–2Wolfurt23 Oct · home
Pick: Kitzbühel 61% · hit
D
Swarovski Tirol II2–2Kitzbühel18 Oct · away
Pick: Kitzbühel 50% · missed
L
Schwaz3–1Kitzbühel30 Aug · away
Pick: Kitzbühel 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lochau

L
Lochau0–4Schwaz31 Oct · home
Pick: Schwaz 41% · hit
L
Lauterach2–0Lochau24 Oct · away
Pick: Lauterach 49% · hit
L
Lochau1–2Röthis17 Oct · home
Pick: Lochau 42% · missed
L
Lochau1–2SVG Reichenau29 Aug · home
Pick: SVG Reichenau 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kitzbühel and Lochau meet in Regionalliga - West on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kitzbühel win 64.8%, draw 16.7%, Lochau win 18.5%. The pick is Kitzbühel win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.8%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.