ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Austria West - 15 2026

Schwaz vs Lustenau

Schwaz Home · Elo 1,467
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lustenau Away · Elo 1,437
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Schwaz win
Schwaz winPick
63.5%
Draw
14.9%
Lustenau win
21.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.9%
No38.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.3%
Under 2.522.7%

How much we know

Schwaz history53 matches
Lustenau history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Schwaz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Schwaz are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,467 against 1,437. On rating alone Schwaz would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Schwaz score more

    1.81 goals a game over 53 matches for Schwaz, against 1.58 over 48 for Lustenau.

  • Schwaz concede fewer

    Schwaz concede 1.89 a game, Lustenau 2.29.

  • Lustenau games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Schwaz matches, against 77% for Lustenau. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Schwaz
Lustenau
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.3
ELO
1437.3
53
ELO · Matches
48
1467.3
Current Team ELO
1437.3
1437.3
Current Opponent ELO
1467.3
29.98
Current ELO Difference
-29.98
0.54
Expected score
0.46
53
History Matches
48
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.07
48.41
Overperformance
45.14
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
4.60
Goals against per game
3.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
3.30
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.91
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
3.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
4.05
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
5.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
48
1.30
PPG
1.17
37.7%
Win rate
31.3%
17.0%
Draw rate
22.9%
45.3%
Loss rate
45.8%
86.8%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
77.1%
39.6%
Over 3.5 rate
60.4%
3.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
25
1.48
PPG
0.96
48.3%
Win rate
28.0%
3.4%
Draw rate
12.0%
48.3%
Loss rate
60.0%
96.6%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
82.8%
Over 2.5 rate
84.0%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
72.0%
3.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.64
29
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.58
69.8%
Scoring rate
79.2%
52.8%
BTTS rate
70.8%
2.10
Goals for per game
1.40
75.9%
Scoring rate
64.0%
51.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
48
1.81
Goals Mean
1.58
1.73
Goals Std
1.22
69.8%
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
49.1%
Scored 2+ rate
47.9%
34.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
2.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.89
Goals against per game
2.29
77.4%
Conceding rate
89.6%
2.21
Goals against per game
2.76
75.9%
Conceding rate
92.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
48
1.89
Conceded Mean
2.29
2.25
Conceded Std
1.70
50.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.3%
24.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.4%
2.21
Venue Conceded Mean
2.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.4%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.4%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
48
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
3.11
Goal Difference Std
2.41
6.46
Stability score
3.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
48
19
Lead Matches
13
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.74
18
Trailing Matches
21
22.2%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.17
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.92
Rest days
76.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
28
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
18
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.25
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.25
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
7
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.68
0.68
Portability PPG Range
1.66
64.02
Portability Score
42.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO29.98
PPG0.14
GF0.23
GA-0.40
PPG1.50
PPG0.52
PPG1.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate9.4%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.51
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate1.1%
Scored 3+ rate11.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std1.04
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std0.56
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std2.58
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.71
Stability score2.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std3.10
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate15.0%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate2.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.40
Portability PPG Range-0.98
Portability Score21.55
Rest days-0.27
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO29.98
Current Opponent ELO-29.98
Current ELO Difference59.96
Expected score0.09
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Schwaz

W
Lochau0–4Schwaz31 Oct · away
Pick: Schwaz 41% · hit
W
Schwaz3–1SK St. Johann23 Oct · home
Pick: Schwaz 51% · hit
W
Wolfurt2–5Schwaz18 Oct · away
Pick: Wolfurt 49% · missed
W
Schwaz3–1Kitzbühel30 Aug · home
Pick: Kitzbühel 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lustenau

D
Lustenau1–1Lauterach31 Oct · home
Pick: Lauterach 47% · missed
L
Röthis4–3Lustenau24 Oct · away
Pick: Röthis 58% · hit
L
Lustenau1–4Dornbirn29 Aug · home
Pick: Dornbirn 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Schwaz and Lustenau meet in Regionalliga - West on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Schwaz win 63.5%, draw 14.9%, Lustenau win 21.6%. The pick is Schwaz win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.3%. Both teams to score: 61.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.