PAOK U19 vs Zrinjski U19
PAOK U19
Full time
3–0
Half time 1–0
Wed 4 Nov · 13:30 UTC
Zrinjski U19
What we said before kickoff Result: PAOK U19 win
PAOK U19 winPick Result
54.5%
Draw
27.9%
Zrinjski U19 win
17.6%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickPAOK U19 win · 54.5%
What happenedPAOK U19 win · we gave it 54.5%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.9%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 56.6%
What happenedNo · 3–0
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: PAOK U19 win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
55%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.8
on average A pick at 55% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalD. Berdos
6' 31'
Yellow cardT. Zentner
Yellow cardC. Avgitidis
33' GoalA. Aretis · assist D. Kanios
52' 54'
Yellow cardM. Poblete
SubstitutionD. Berdos off · G. Kostoglou on
57' SubstitutionE. Gjoka off · M. Papadopoulos on
57' 60'
SubstitutionM. Poblete off · M. Jozic on
SubstitutionG. Kosidis off · K. Mischos on
64' SubstitutionI. Psyroukis off · A. Floros on
76' SubstitutionK. Souvlatzis off · M. Marios on
77' 79'
SubstitutionE. Hrnjic off · M. Kolak on
79'
SubstitutionA. Sunjic off · I. Miletic on
GoalM. Marios · assist N. Chaldezos
81' 86'
SubstitutionT. Zentner off · M. Karacic on
87'
SubstitutionF. Knezevic off · M. Cosic on
Yellow cardK. Mischos
90' 90'
Penalty missedA. Arapovic
Both teams to score
Yes43.4%
No56.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
How much we know
PAOK U19 history4 matches
Zrinjski U19 history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full time: 3–0All three of our picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why PAOK U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,504 against 1,490. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
PAOK U19 score far more
1.50 goals a game over 4 matches for PAOK U19, against 0.50 over 2 for Zrinjski U19.
-
PAOK U19 concede fewer
PAOK U19 concede 1.00 a game, Zrinjski U19 2.00.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
50% of PAOK U19 matches, against 50% for Zrinjski U19. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 Dec 2025 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
PAOK U19
Zrinjski U19
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1504.1
ELO
1490.1
4
ELO · Matches
2
1504.1
Current Team ELO
1490.1
1490.1
Current Opponent ELO
1504.1
14.00
Current ELO Difference
-14.00
0.52
Expected score
0.48
4
History Matches
2
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.25
50.87
Overperformance
47.75
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals 160
4
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
4
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals 90
4
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals 100
2
Matches
1
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
4
History Matches
2
1.50
Goals Mean
0.50
0.50
Goals Std
0.50
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
4
History Matches
2
1.00
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.00
Conceded Std
1.00
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
4
History Matches
2
0.63
Result entropy
0.63
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.50
36.91
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
4
Eligible Matches
2
1
Lead Matches
0
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
1.00
Lead Points Retention
—
1
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.25
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
329.9
Rest days
398.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
3
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
4
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO14.00
PPG1.00
GF1.00
GA-1.00
PPG1.50
PPG1.00
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate50.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.50
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate50.0%
Failed-to-score rate-1.00
History Matches2
Goals Mean1.00
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate50.0%
Scored 2+ rate50.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-1.00
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.50
Venue Conceded Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-68.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO14.00
Current Opponent ELO-14.00
Current ELO Difference28.01
Expected score0.04
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.30
Overperformance3.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.30
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
PAOK U19
W
Zrinjski U191–3PAOK U1928 Oct · away
Pick: PAOK U19 42% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Zrinjski U19
L
Zrinjski U191–3PAOK U1928 Oct · home
Pick: PAOK U19 42% · hit W
Lincoln Red Imps U191–4Zrinjski U1913 Oct · away
Pick: Lincoln Red Imps U19 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
PAOK U19 and Zrinjski U19 finished 3–0 in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: PAOK U19 win 54.5%, draw 27.9%, Zrinjski U19 win 17.6%. All three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.