KRC Gent vs Londerzeel
Match result probability Model pick: Londerzeel win
KRC Gent win
35.2%
Draw
19.9%
Londerzeel winPick
44.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes62.4%
No37.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.565.3%
Under 2.534.7%
How much we know
KRC Gent history40 matches
Londerzeel history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Londerzeel
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Londerzeel are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Londerzeel are rated 101 Elo points higher
Elo 1,593 against 1,493. On rating alone Londerzeel would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Londerzeel score more
1.58 goals a game over 40 matches for KRC Gent, against 2.30 over 33 for Londerzeel.
-
Londerzeel concede fewer
KRC Gent concede 1.85 a game, Londerzeel 1.24.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
63% of KRC Gent matches, against 70% for Londerzeel. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 14 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Londerzeel@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1492.5
ELO
1593.4
40
ELO · Matches
33
1492.5
Current Team ELO
1593.4
1593.4
Current Opponent ELO
1492.5
-100.9
Current ELO Difference
100.9
0.36
Expected score
0.64
40
History Matches
33
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.14
49.32
Overperformance
58.78
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.50
2.00
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals 90
40
Matches
33
1.43
PPG
2.18
40.0%
Win rate
66.7%
22.5%
Draw rate
18.2%
37.5%
Loss rate
15.2%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
69.7%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
51.5%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
16
1.75
PPG
2.13
55.0%
Win rate
62.5%
10.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
35.0%
Loss rate
12.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.8%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
55.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
20
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.58
Goals for per game
2.30
72.5%
Scoring rate
93.9%
60.0%
BTTS rate
75.8%
1.75
Goals for per game
2.13
80.0%
Scoring rate
93.8%
55.0%
BTTS rate
81.3%
40
History Matches
33
1.58
Goals Mean
2.30
1.36
Goals Std
1.34
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
93.9%
47.5%
Scored 2+ rate
63.6%
22.5%
Scored 3+ rate
48.5%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
2.13
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.85
Goals against per game
1.24
80.0%
Conceding rate
78.8%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.06
65.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
40
History Matches
33
1.85
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.51
Conceded Std
1.07
45.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
37.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
6.1%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
6.1%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
40
History Matches
33
0.97
Result entropy
0.79
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.41
2.61
Stability score
21.16
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
17
Eligible Matches
23
7
Lead Matches
8
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
7
20.0%
Non-loss rate
57.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
23
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.22
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
202.3
Rest days
184.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.31
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.46
Portability PPG Std
—
0.92
Portability PPG Range
—
52.12
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
40
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-100.9
PPG-0.76
GF-0.73
GA0.61
PPG-0.38
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate21.4%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate22.5%
Failed-to-score rate13.8%
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.73
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.26
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.44
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate17.7%
Conceded 3+ rate25.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches7
Result entropy0.19
Goal Difference Std0.57
Stability score-18.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.47
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.24
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.37
Trailing Win Rate-0.29
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days18.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.93
Current Team ELO-100.9
Current Opponent ELO100.9
Current ELO Difference-201.9
Expected score-0.28
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-9.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
KRC Gent
L
Oostkamp1–0KRC Gent7 Nov · away
Pick: Oostkamp 56% · hit D
KRC Gent1–1Mechelen II31 Oct · home
Pick: Mechelen II 44% · missed W
VW Hamme0–3KRC Gent25 Oct · away
Pick: VW Hamme 40% · missed W
KRC Gent1–0Oudenaarde17 Oct · home
Pick: KRC Gent 38% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Londerzeel
L
FC Lebbeke3–0Londerzeel31 Oct · away
Pick: Londerzeel 41% · missed D
Londerzeel1–1HO Kalken25 Oct · home
Pick: Londerzeel 54% · missed W
Londerzeel3–2Diksmuide18 Oct · home
Pick: Diksmuide 44% · missed L
Londerzeel0–1VW Hamme4 Oct · home
Pick: Londerzeel 49% · missed W
Londerzeel2–1Mechelen II30 Aug · home
Pick: Londerzeel 48% · hit About this match
KRC Gent and Londerzeel meet in Second Amateur Division - VFV A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: KRC Gent win 35.2%, draw 19.9%, Londerzeel win 44.9%. The pick is Londerzeel win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.3%. Both teams to score: 62.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.