Sparta Petegem vs Oostkamp
Match result probability Model pick: Sparta Petegem win
Sparta Petegem winPick
45.0%
Draw
22.7%
Oostkamp win
32.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.7%
No40.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.0%
Under 2.539.0%
How much we know
Sparta Petegem history42 matches
Oostkamp history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Sparta Petegem
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Sparta Petegem are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Oostkamp are rated 31 Elo points higher
Elo 1,541 against 1,509. On rating alone Oostkamp would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.55 goals a game over 42 matches for Sparta Petegem, against 1.58 over 38 for Oostkamp.
-
Oostkamp concede fewer
Sparta Petegem concede 1.67 a game, Oostkamp 1.18.
-
Sparta Petegem games more often go over 2.5 goals
64% of Sparta Petegem matches, against 53% for Oostkamp. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oostkamp@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1509.5
ELO
1540.6
42
ELO · Matches
38
1509.5
Current Team ELO
1540.6
1540.6
Current Opponent ELO
1509.5
-31.15
Current ELO Difference
31.15
0.46
Expected score
0.54
42
History Matches
38
0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
50.80
Overperformance
53.74
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals 90
42
Matches
38
1.38
PPG
1.68
40.5%
Win rate
47.4%
16.7%
Draw rate
26.3%
42.9%
Loss rate
26.3%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
40.5%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals 100
21
Matches
18
1.38
PPG
1.44
38.1%
Win rate
38.9%
23.8%
Draw rate
27.8%
38.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
52.4%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
21
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.55
Goals for per game
1.58
73.8%
Scoring rate
76.3%
52.4%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.56
85.7%
Scoring rate
77.8%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
42
History Matches
38
1.55
Goals Mean
1.58
1.40
Goals Std
1.31
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
76.3%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
44.7%
23.8%
Scored 3+ rate
26.3%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.67
Goals against per game
1.18
73.8%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.76
Goals against per game
1.56
76.2%
Conceding rate
83.3%
42
History Matches
38
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.36
Conceded Std
1.02
52.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.9%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
42
History Matches
38
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
2.11
Goal Difference Std
1.69
6.44
Stability score
3.83
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
24
Eligible Matches
20
8
Lead Matches
7
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.81
4
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.25
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
202.3
Rest days
210.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
14
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.05
Portability PPG Range
0.56
95.24
Portability Score
64.13
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
42
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-31.15
PPG-0.30
GF-0.03
GA0.48
PPG-0.06
PPG0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score2.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate3.6%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.51
Portability Score31.11
Rest days-7.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Current Team ELO-31.15
Current Opponent ELO31.15
Current ELO Difference-62.31
Expected score-0.09
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-2.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Sparta Petegem
W
FC Lebbeke2–3Sparta Petegem7 Nov · away
Pick: Sparta Petegem 40% · hit W
Sparta Petegem3–1Oudenaarde31 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Petegem 40% · hit D
Ninove1–1Sparta Petegem24 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Petegem 49% · missed W
Sparta Petegem2–1VW Hamme18 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Petegem 49% · hit L
Sparta Petegem0–1Zulte Waregem II29 Aug · home
Pick: Zulte Waregem II 43% · hit Oostkamp
W
Oostkamp1–0KRC Gent7 Nov · home
Pick: Oostkamp 56% · hit L
Oostkamp3–6Zulte Waregem II31 Oct · home
Pick: Oostkamp 47% · missed D
Mechelen II1–1Oostkamp24 Oct · away
Pick: Mechelen II 46% · missed D
Oostkamp0–0Ninove18 Oct · home
Pick: Oostkamp 50% · missed W
FC Lebbeke1–2Oostkamp29 Aug · away
Pick: FC Lebbeke 40% · missed About this match
Sparta Petegem and Oostkamp meet in Second Amateur Division - VFV A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sparta Petegem win 45.0%, draw 22.7%, Oostkamp win 32.3%. The pick is Sparta Petegem win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.0%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.