ScoreProb
Eliteserien Norway Round 26 2026

Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga

Kristiansund BK Home · Elo 1,492
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Valerenga Away · Elo 1,549
Kristiansund Stadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kristiansund BK win
Kristiansund BK winPick
43.4%
Draw
24.3%
Valerenga win
32.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.7%
Under 2.535.3%

How much we know

Kristiansund BK history69 matches
Valerenga history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kristiansund BK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Valerenga are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,549 against 1,492. On rating alone Valerenga would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Valerenga score more

    1.29 goals a game over 69 matches for Kristiansund BK, against 1.83 over 66 for Valerenga.

  • Defences are close

    Kristiansund BK concede 1.71 a game, Valerenga 1.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Kristiansund BK matches, against 61% for Valerenga. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kristiansund BK
Valerenga
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.3
ELO
1549.1
69
ELO · Matches
66
1492.3
Current Team ELO
1549.1
1549.1
Current Opponent ELO
1492.3
-56.82
Current ELO Difference
56.82
0.42
Expected score
0.58
69
History Matches
66
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
48.91
Overperformance
53.95
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
3.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.70
1.60
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.41
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
66
1.20
PPG
1.45
31.9%
Win rate
42.4%
24.6%
Draw rate
18.2%
43.5%
Loss rate
39.4%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
43.9%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
28
1.32
PPG
1.04
35.5%
Win rate
28.6%
25.8%
Draw rate
17.9%
38.7%
Loss rate
53.6%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
64.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
31
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.83
68.1%
Scoring rate
83.3%
58.0%
BTTS rate
65.2%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.46
67.7%
Scoring rate
78.6%
61.3%
BTTS rate
60.7%
0.88
Goals for per game
1.65
58.8%
Scoring rate
64.7%
52.9%
BTTS rate
52.9%
69
History Matches
66
1.29
Goals Mean
1.83
1.24
Goals Std
1.55
68.1%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
11.6%
Scored 3+ rate
30.3%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.71
Goals against per game
1.74
81.2%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.61
Goals against per game
2.07
83.9%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.59
Goals against per game
2.00
88.2%
Conceding rate
88.2%
69
History Matches
66
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.74
1.48
Conceded Std
1.45
46.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
23.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.2%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
66
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
2.06
Goal Difference Std
2.09
2.45
Stability score
5.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
65
18
Lead Matches
23
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.81
21
Trailing Matches
20
23.8%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
41
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
22
Long Rest History Matches
35
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
0.88
PPG
1.24
23.5%
Win rate
35.3%
17.6%
Draw rate
17.6%
58.8%
Loss rate
47.1%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
11.8%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
17
Current Competition Matches
17
0.88
Current Competition PPG
1.24
-0.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.35
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.95
Portability PPG Range
0.76
61.46
Portability Score
62.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-56.82
PPG-0.25
GF-0.54
GA-0.03
PPG-0.35
PPG0.29
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate15.2%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate10.8%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.94
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-2.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.59
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate3.9%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate3.8%
Trailing Win Rate9.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.35
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score-1.45
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.80
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Long Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO-56.82
Current Opponent ELO56.82
Current ELO Difference-113.6
Expected score-0.16
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kristiansund BK

W
Sarpsborg 08 FF2–4Kristiansund BK1 Nov · away
Pick: Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% · missed
L
Kristiansund BK0–2Aalesund28 Oct · home
Pick: Aalesund 54% · hit
D
Kristiansund BK2–2KFUM Oslo25 Oct · home
Pick: Kristiansund BK 38% · missed
L
Kristiansund BK1–4Aalesund17 Oct · home
Pick: Kristiansund BK 40% · missed
L
Molde3–0Kristiansund BK4 Oct · away
Pick: Molde 58% · hit

Valerenga

W
Valerenga4–0Tromso1 Nov · home
Pick: Tromso 51% · missed
L
Sarpsborg 08 FF3–2Valerenga28 Oct · away
Pick: Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% · hit
W
Bodo/Glimt0–1Valerenga24 Oct · away
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 73% · missed
W
Valerenga3–1Brann18 Oct · home
Pick: Brann 50% · missed
L
KFUM Oslo2–1Valerenga12 Oct · away
Pick: KFUM Oslo 49% · hit

About this match

Kristiansund BK and Valerenga meet in Eliteserien on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Kristiansund Stadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kristiansund BK win 43.4%, draw 24.3%, Valerenga win 32.2%. The pick is Kristiansund BK win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.7%. Both teams to score: 62.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.