ScoreProb
Thai League 1 Thailand Round 8 2026

Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC

Lamphun Warrior Home · Elo 1,503
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sukhothai FC Away · Elo 1,449
Lamphun PAO, Nai Mueang Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lamphun Warrior win
Lamphun Warrior winPick
47.4%
Draw
31.6%
Sukhothai FC win
21.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%
No51.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

Lamphun Warrior history52 matches
Sukhothai FC history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lamphun Warrior are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lamphun Warrior are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,503 against 1,449. On rating alone Lamphun Warrior would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.10 goals a game over 52 matches for Lamphun Warrior, against 1.06 over 49 for Sukhothai FC.

  • Lamphun Warrior concede fewer

    Lamphun Warrior concede 1.33 a game, Sukhothai FC 1.57.

  • Sukhothai FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Lamphun Warrior matches, against 49% for Sukhothai FC. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lamphun Warrior
Sukhothai FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1503.1
ELO
1448.5
52
ELO · Matches
49
1503.1
Current Team ELO
1448.5
1448.5
Current Opponent ELO
1503.1
54.56
Current ELO Difference
-54.56
0.58
Expected score
0.42
52
History Matches
49
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.32
Overperformance
46.30
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.70
0.70
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
49
1.15
PPG
0.98
23.1%
Win rate
22.4%
46.2%
Draw rate
30.6%
30.8%
Loss rate
46.9%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
36.5%
Over 2.5 rate
49.0%
21.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
1.31
PPG
0.52
26.9%
Win rate
8.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
28.0%
23.1%
Loss rate
64.0%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.10
Goals for per game
1.06
73.1%
Scoring rate
61.2%
55.8%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.31
Goals for per game
0.64
80.8%
Scoring rate
40.0%
57.7%
BTTS rate
36.0%
52
History Matches
49
1.10
Goals Mean
1.06
0.88
Goals Std
1.13
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
61.2%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
26.5%
7.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
0.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.57
75.0%
Conceding rate
81.6%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.88
69.2%
Conceding rate
92.0%
52
History Matches
49
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.14
Conceded Std
1.36
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.8%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.4%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
38.8%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
38.8%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
49
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.79
3.71
Stability score
4.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
49
18
Lead Matches
11
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
54.5%
0.61
Lead Points Retention
0.64
10
Trailing Matches
16
40.0%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
173.0
Rest days
180.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.83
26
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.78
Portability PPG Range
1.33
63.59
Portability Score
46.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO54.56
PPG0.17
GF0.03
GA-0.24
PPG0.79
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.41
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate11.9%
Scored 2+ rate2.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.64
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score-0.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.00
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate21.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.55
Portability Score17.13
Rest days-7.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.46
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO54.56
Current Opponent ELO-54.56
Current ELO Difference109.1
Expected score0.16
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lamphun Warrior

W
Rayong FC0–4Lamphun Warrior1 Nov · away
Pick: Lamphun Warrior 43% · hit
W
Lamphun Warrior3–1Pattani25 Oct · home
Pick: Lamphun Warrior 54% · hit
W
Suphanburi0–4Lamphun Warrior20 Oct · away
Pick: Lamphun Warrior 59% · hit
W
Ayutthaya FC0–2Lamphun Warrior16 Oct · away
Pick: Lamphun Warrior 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sukhothai FC

L
Sukhothai FC0–3Ayutthaya FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Ayutthaya FC 36% · hit
W
Uthai Thani1–2Sukhothai FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Uthai Thani 41% · missed
L
Romklao United1–0Sukhothai FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Sukhothai FC 43% · missed
W
Sukhothai FC5–1Rasi Salai United17 Oct · home
Pick: Sukhothai FC 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC meet in Thai League 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Lamphun PAO, Nai Mueang. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Lamphun Warrior win 47.4%, draw 31.6%, Sukhothai FC win 21.0%. The pick is Lamphun Warrior win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.