Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town
Match result probability Model pick: Leyton Orient win
Leyton Orient winPick
49.8%
Draw
23.8%
Harborough Town win
26.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.3%
No43.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%
How much we know
Leyton Orient history94 matches
Harborough Town history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Leyton Orient
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Leyton Orient are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Harborough Town are rated 168 Elo points higher
Elo 1,679 against 1,512. On rating alone Harborough Town would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.
-
Harborough Town score more
1.61 goals a game over 94 matches for Leyton Orient, against 1.94 over 72 for Harborough Town.
-
Harborough Town concede fewer
Leyton Orient concede 1.35 a game, Harborough Town 0.82.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
61% of Leyton Orient matches, against 53% for Harborough Town. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Harborough Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1511.7
ELO
1679.4
94
ELO · Matches
72
1511.7
Current Team ELO
1679.4
1679.4
Current Opponent ELO
1511.7
-167.7
Current ELO Difference
167.7
0.28
Expected score
0.72
94
History Matches
72
0.00
Residual Mean
0.12
49.91
Overperformance
59.58
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals 90
94
Matches
72
1.43
PPG
2.15
41.5%
Win rate
61.1%
18.1%
Draw rate
31.9%
40.4%
Loss rate
6.9%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
60.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.9%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals 100
43
Matches
35
1.49
PPG
2.00
41.9%
Win rate
54.3%
23.3%
Draw rate
37.1%
34.9%
Loss rate
8.6%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
27.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
43
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.61
Goals for per game
1.94
76.6%
Scoring rate
90.3%
60.6%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.89
81.4%
Scoring rate
88.6%
60.5%
BTTS rate
60.0%
94
History Matches
72
1.61
Goals Mean
1.94
1.63
Goals Std
1.23
76.6%
Scored 1+ rate
90.3%
41.5%
Scored 2+ rate
58.3%
20.2%
Scored 3+ rate
30.6%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.35
Goals against per game
0.82
77.7%
Conceding rate
56.9%
1.21
Goals against per game
0.91
74.4%
Conceding rate
62.9%
94
History Matches
72
1.35
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.06
Conceded Std
0.87
39.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.8%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.8%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
0.91
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.4%
22.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.4%
22.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
94
History Matches
72
0.95
Result entropy
0.77
2.02
Goal Difference Std
1.34
5.30
Stability score
22.56
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
94
Eligible Matches
72
26
Lead Matches
33
73.1%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.88
22
Trailing Matches
12
27.3%
Non-loss rate
75.0%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
41.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
94
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.32
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.19
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.84
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
77
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.16
11
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
11
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.12
1.37
Portability PPG Range
0.26
50.78
Portability Score
81.07
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
94
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-167.7
PPG-0.73
GF-0.34
GA0.53
PPG-0.51
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate13.7%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches22
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches22
Conceded Mean0.53
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches22
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std0.67
Stability score-17.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.77
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.48
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range1.11
Portability Score-30.29
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Current Team ELO-167.7
Current Opponent ELO167.7
Current ELO Difference-335.4
Expected score-0.45
History Matches22
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-9.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Leyton Orient
W
Leyton Orient3–0Cambridge United31 Oct · home
Pick: Leyton Orient 44% · hit L
Burton Albion2–1Leyton Orient24 Oct · away
Pick: Burton Albion 37% · hit L
Reading1–0Leyton Orient21 Oct · away
Pick: Reading 39% · hit W
Leyton Orient2–0Blackpool17 Oct · home
Pick: Leyton Orient 46% · hit W
Bromley0–5Leyton Orient1 Sep · away
Pick: Bromley 39% · missed Harborough Town
D
Hebburn Town1–1Harborough Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Hebburn Town 46% · missed L
Buxton3–0Harborough Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Buxton 41% · hit D
Harborough Town1–1Worksop Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Harborough Town 57% · missed W
Harborough Town3–1Spennymoor Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Harborough Town 39% · hit W
Harborough Town2–1Marine31 Aug · home
Pick: Harborough Town 53% · hit About this match
Leyton Orient and Harborough Town meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Brisbane Road, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Leyton Orient win 49.8%, draw 23.8%, Harborough Town win 26.4%. The pick is Leyton Orient win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.8%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.