ScoreProb
1. Division Belarus Round 32 2026

Lida vs BATE II

Lida Home · Elo 1,543
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
BATE II Away · Elo 1,435
Yunost Stadium, Lida Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lida win
Lida winPick
65.0%
Draw
17.1%
BATE II win
17.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.5%
No35.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.1%
Under 2.528.9%

How much we know

Lida history60 matches
BATE II history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Lida are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lida are rated 107 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,435. On rating alone Lida would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Lida score more

    2.05 goals a game over 60 matches for Lida, against 1.80 over 55 for BATE II.

  • Lida concede fewer

    Lida concede 1.50 a game, BATE II 1.84.

  • Lida games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Lida matches, against 64% for BATE II. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lida
BATE II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.0
ELO
1435.5
60
ELO · Matches
55
1543.0
Current Team ELO
1435.5
1435.5
Current Opponent ELO
1543.0
107.5
Current ELO Difference
-107.5
0.65
Expected score
0.35
60
History Matches
55
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
52.33
Overperformance
45.48
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.60
1.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
2.70
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
55
1.68
PPG
1.27
53.3%
Win rate
34.5%
8.3%
Draw rate
23.6%
38.3%
Loss rate
41.8%
88.3%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
78.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
47.3%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
28
1.86
PPG
1.04
58.6%
Win rate
25.0%
10.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
31.0%
Loss rate
46.4%
89.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
79.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
29
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.05
Goals for per game
1.80
86.7%
Scoring rate
78.2%
70.0%
BTTS rate
69.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.32
86.2%
Scoring rate
64.3%
72.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.90
Goals for per game
1.38
90.5%
Scoring rate
71.4%
85.7%
BTTS rate
71.4%
60
History Matches
55
2.05
Goals Mean
1.80
1.47
Goals Std
1.62
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
63.3%
Scored 2+ rate
47.3%
30.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.5%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.84
80.0%
Conceding rate
87.3%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.82
82.8%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.62
Goals against per game
2.33
90.5%
Conceding rate
95.2%
60
History Matches
55
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.84
1.13
Conceded Std
1.32
43.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.7%
21.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.5%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
4.8%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
55
0.83
Result entropy
0.98
2.03
Goal Difference Std
2.13
17.18
Stability score
2.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
55
23
Lead Matches
11
91.3%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.70
17
Trailing Matches
22
29.4%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
23.5%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.83
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
33
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
26
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.86
PPG
0.81
57.1%
Win rate
19.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
23.8%
28.6%
Loss rate
57.1%
95.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
81.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.86
Current Competition PPG
0.81
0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.95
6
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.25
Portability PPG Range
0.75
79.93
Portability Score
57.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO107.5
PPG0.41
GF0.25
GA-0.34
PPG1.05
PPG0.83
PPG1.20
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate8.5%
Scored 2+ rate16.1%
Scored 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score14.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.15
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate27.7%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate2.1%
Trailing Win Rate14.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.24
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score22.77
Rest days-1.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO107.5
Current Opponent ELO-107.5
Current ELO Difference214.9
Expected score0.30
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lida

W
Uni Minsk1–3Lida31 Oct · away
Pick: Lida 44% · hit
W
Lida1–0Molodechno-DYuSSh 424 Oct · home
Pick: Lida 54% · hit
W
Shakhter Soligorsk1–2Lida29 Aug · away
Pick: Shakhter Soligorsk 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

BATE II

L
BATE II2–4Niva31 Oct · home
Pick: Niva 62% · hit
L
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk4–1BATE II25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 63% · hit
L
BATE II0–1FC Slutsk16 Oct · home
Pick: FC Slutsk 57% · hit
D
BATE II2–2Gomel II29 Aug · home
Pick: BATE II 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lida and BATE II meet in 1. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Yunost Stadium, Lida. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lida win 65.0%, draw 17.1%, BATE II win 17.9%. The pick is Lida win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.1%. Both teams to score: 64.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.