ScoreProb
1. Division Belarus Round 32 2026

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk vs Ostrovets FC

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk Home · Elo 1,530
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ostrovets FC Away · Elo 1,481
RCOP-BGU Stadium, Minsk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk winPick
49.3%
Draw
23.1%
Ostrovets FC win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.0%
Under 2.540.0%

How much we know

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk history26 matches
Ostrovets FC history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,481. On rating alone FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk score more

    1.92 goals a game over 26 matches for FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk, against 1.59 over 59 for Ostrovets FC.

  • FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk concede fewer

    FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk concede 1.19 a game, Ostrovets FC 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk matches, against 59% for Ostrovets FC. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Ostrovets FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.9
ELO
1481.2
26
ELO · Matches
59
1529.9
Current Team ELO
1481.2
1481.2
Current Opponent ELO
1529.9
48.71
Current ELO Difference
-48.71
0.57
Expected score
0.43
26
History Matches
59
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
53.16
Overperformance
48.68
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
26
Matches
59
1.73
PPG
1.34
50.0%
Win rate
37.3%
23.1%
Draw rate
22.0%
26.9%
Loss rate
40.7%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.1%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
42.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
13
Matches
30
1.92
PPG
1.53
53.8%
Win rate
43.3%
30.8%
Draw rate
23.3%
15.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
61.5%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
13
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
1.59
69.2%
Scoring rate
78.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
62.7%
2.08
Goals for per game
1.77
69.2%
Scoring rate
83.3%
61.5%
BTTS rate
63.3%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.19
71.4%
Scoring rate
81.0%
52.4%
BTTS rate
71.4%
26
History Matches
59
1.92
Goals Mean
1.59
1.73
Goals Std
1.60
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
78.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.0%
42.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.3%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.44
73.1%
Conceding rate
78.0%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.27
76.9%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.48
71.4%
Conceding rate
76.2%
26
History Matches
59
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.44
0.96
Conceded Std
1.11
34.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.9%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
26
History Matches
59
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.99
Goal Difference Std
2.07
5.50
Stability score
2.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
26
Eligible Matches
59
8
Lead Matches
16
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.90
7
Trailing Matches
17
57.1%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
13
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
11
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.81
PPG
1.14
52.4%
Win rate
23.8%
23.8%
Draw rate
42.9%
23.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.81
Current Competition PPG
1.14
0.76
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.29
4
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.16
—
Portability PPG Range
0.31
—
Portability Score
76.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
26
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO48.71
PPG0.39
GF0.33
GA-0.25
PPG0.67
PPG0.39
PPG-1.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-33
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches-33
Goals Mean0.33
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate11.0%
Scored 3+ rate22.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std1.13
History Matches-33
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches-33
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score2.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches-33
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate39.5%
Trailing Win Rate28.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-33
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.05
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.74
Current Team ELO48.71
Current Opponent ELO-48.71
Current ELO Difference97.42
Expected score0.14
History Matches-33
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

W
Slonim0–3FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk31 Oct · away
Pick: Slonim 42% · missed
W
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk4–1BATE II25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ostrovets FC

W
Ostrovets FC2–1FC Slutsk1 Nov · home
Pick: FC Slutsk 41% · missed
W
Ostrovets FC2–0Volna29 Aug · home
Pick: Ostrovets FC 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk and Ostrovets FC meet in 1. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at RCOP-BGU Stadium, Minsk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win 49.3%, draw 23.1%, Ostrovets FC win 27.6%. The pick is FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.0%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.