ScoreProb
1. Division Belarus Round 32 2026

Minsk II vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Minsk II Home · Elo 1,511
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 Away · Elo 1,436
Stadium FC Minsk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win
Minsk II win
37.8%
Draw
22.1%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 winPick
40.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.6%
No43.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%

How much we know

Minsk II history52 matches
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 3 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Minsk II are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,511 against 1,436. On rating alone Minsk II would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Minsk II score more

    1.44 goals a game over 52 matches for Minsk II, against 1.14 over 57 for Molodechno-DYuSSh 4.

  • Minsk II concede fewer

    Minsk II concede 1.44 a game, Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1.93.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Minsk II matches, against 63% for Molodechno-DYuSSh 4. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Minsk II
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.4
ELO
1436.5
52
ELO · Matches
57
1511.4
Current Team ELO
1436.5
1436.5
Current Opponent ELO
1511.4
74.90
Current ELO Difference
-74.90
0.61
Expected score
0.39
52
History Matches
57
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.72
Overperformance
46.00
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.60
1.80
Goals for per game
3.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.90
1.90
Goals for per game
2.30
1.20
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.80
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
57
1.54
PPG
0.93
46.2%
Win rate
28.1%
15.4%
Draw rate
8.8%
38.5%
Loss rate
63.2%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.6%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
29
1.12
PPG
1.00
30.8%
Win rate
31.0%
19.2%
Draw rate
6.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
62.1%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
75.9%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
44.8%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
26
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.14
76.9%
Scoring rate
59.6%
53.8%
BTTS rate
42.1%
1.15
Goals for per game
1.21
65.4%
Scoring rate
62.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
41.4%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.76
71.4%
Scoring rate
76.2%
52.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
52
History Matches
57
1.44
Goals Mean
1.14
1.31
Goals Std
1.25
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
59.6%
40.4%
Scored 2+ rate
29.8%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
19.3%
1.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.93
73.1%
Conceding rate
80.7%
1.65
Goals against per game
2.24
80.8%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.62
76.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
52
History Matches
57
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.93
1.29
Conceded Std
1.53
42.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.4%
19.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.6%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
2.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
57
0.92
Result entropy
0.78
1.99
Goal Difference Std
2.25
7.85
Stability score
21.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
57
15
Lead Matches
14
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.74
14
Trailing Matches
29
21.4%
Non-loss rate
10.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
3.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.98
Rest days
77.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
21
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.38
PPG
1.67
42.9%
Win rate
52.4%
9.5%
Draw rate
9.5%
47.6%
Loss rate
38.1%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.64
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.38
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.14
2
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.26
Portability PPG Range
1.33
79.10
Portability Score
44.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO74.90
PPG0.61
GF0.30
GA-0.49
PPG-0.29
PPG0.12
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate17.3%
Scored 2+ rate10.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.49
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.73
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-13.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.91
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate8.6%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate10.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.48
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.49
Portability PPG Range-1.07
Portability Score34.49
Rest days-0.84
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.96
Current Team ELO74.90
Current Opponent ELO-74.90
Current ELO Difference149.8
Expected score0.21
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Minsk II

W
Gomel II1–4Minsk II2 Nov · away
Pick: Minsk II 45% · hit
L
Minsk II1–5Orsha24 Oct · home
Pick: Minsk II 55% · missed
L
Bumprom2–1Minsk II4 Oct · away
Pick: Bumprom 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

W
Molodechno-DYuSSh 45–0Osipovichy2 Nov · home
Pick: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 63% · hit
L
Dinamo Minsk II1–0Molodechno-DYuSSh 429 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Minsk II 39% · hit
L
Lida1–0Molodechno-DYuSSh 424 Oct · away
Pick: Lida 54% · hit
W
Uni Minsk0–1Molodechno-DYuSSh 429 Aug · away
Pick: Uni Minsk 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Minsk II and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 meet in 1. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadium FC Minsk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Minsk II win 37.8%, draw 22.1%, Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win 40.0%. The pick is Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.9%. Both teams to score: 56.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.