ScoreProb
1. Division Belarus Round 32 2026

Shakhter Soligorsk vs Volna

Shakhter Soligorsk Home · Elo 1,487
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Volna Away · Elo 1,481
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shakhter Soligorsk win
Shakhter Soligorsk winPick
46.4%
Draw
22.9%
Volna win
30.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.7%
No33.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.5%
Under 2.527.5%

How much we know

Shakhter Soligorsk history23 matches
Volna history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Shakhter Soligorsk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,487 against 1,481. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.96 goals a game over 23 matches for Shakhter Soligorsk, against 1.85 over 60 for Volna.

  • Defences are close

    Shakhter Soligorsk concede 1.70 a game, Volna 1.73.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    70% of Shakhter Soligorsk matches, against 72% for Volna. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Volna
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.3
ELO
1480.8
23
ELO · Matches
60
1487.3
Current Team ELO
1480.8
1480.8
Current Opponent ELO
1487.3
6.48
Current ELO Difference
-6.48
0.51
Expected score
0.49
23
History Matches
60
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.25
Overperformance
48.98
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
3.20
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.90
2.50
Goals against per game
2.30
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
60
1.43
PPG
1.42
39.1%
Win rate
40.0%
26.1%
Draw rate
21.7%
34.8%
Loss rate
38.3%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
88.3%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.7%
52.2%
Over 3.5 rate
53.3%
2.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
29
1.73
PPG
1.52
45.5%
Win rate
44.8%
36.4%
Draw rate
17.2%
18.2%
Loss rate
37.9%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
75.9%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
58.6%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
11
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.96
Goals for per game
1.85
87.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
60.9%
BTTS rate
71.7%
1.91
Goals for per game
2.03
90.9%
Scoring rate
86.2%
54.5%
BTTS rate
69.0%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.76
85.7%
Scoring rate
81.0%
61.9%
BTTS rate
76.2%
23
History Matches
60
1.96
Goals Mean
1.85
1.57
Goals Std
1.36
87.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
47.8%
Scored 2+ rate
55.0%
30.4%
Scored 3+ rate
28.3%
1.91
Venue Goals Mean
2.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.70
Goals against per game
1.73
65.2%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.69
54.5%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.81
Goals against per game
1.76
66.7%
Conceding rate
90.5%
23
History Matches
60
1.70
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.76
Conceded Std
1.25
52.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.3%
21.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.7%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
60
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
2.54
Goal Difference Std
2.03
1.24
Stability score
3.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
23
Eligible Matches
60
10
Lead Matches
20
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.87
3
Trailing Matches
19
0.0%
Non-loss rate
42.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
1.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.95
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
16
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
6
Long Rest History Matches
26
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.38
PPG
1.48
38.1%
Win rate
42.9%
23.8%
Draw rate
19.0%
38.1%
Loss rate
38.1%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
76.2%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
52.4%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.38
Current Competition PPG
1.48
0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.03
—
Portability PPG Range
0.06
—
Portability Score
93.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO6.48
PPG0.02
GF0.11
GA-0.04
PPG-0.10
PPG0.21
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-37
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate28.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-37
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches-37
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.51
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Conceded 2+ rate3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches-37
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score-1.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.66
Eligible Matches-37
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches-16
Non-loss rate-0.42
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-37
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.14
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.99
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches-20
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO6.48
Current Opponent ELO-6.48
Current ELO Difference12.96
Expected score0.02
History Matches-37
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-0.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shakhter Soligorsk

W
Dinamo Minsk II0–2Shakhter Soligorsk1 Nov · away
Pick: Dinamo Minsk II 47% · missed
W
Shakhter Soligorsk4–0Smorgon24 Oct · home
Pick: Shakhter Soligorsk 45% · hit
L
Shakhter Soligorsk1–2Lida29 Aug · home
Pick: Shakhter Soligorsk 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Volna

W
Volna1–0Smorgon1 Nov · home
Pick: Volna 45% · hit
W
Bumprom1–3Volna24 Oct · away
Pick: Bumprom 60% · missed
L
Ostrovets FC2–0Volna29 Aug · away
Pick: Ostrovets FC 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Shakhter Soligorsk and Volna meet in 1. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Shakhter Soligorsk win 46.4%, draw 22.9%, Volna win 30.6%. The pick is Shakhter Soligorsk win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.5%. Both teams to score: 66.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.