ScoreProb
1. Division Belarus Round 32 2026

Smorgon vs Orsha

Smorgon Home · Elo 1,442
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Orsha Away · Elo 1,384
Yunost Stadium, Smorgon Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Smorgon win
Smorgon winPick
55.5%
Draw
23.1%
Orsha win
21.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.8%
Under 2.541.2%

How much we know

Smorgon history64 matches
Orsha history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Smorgon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Smorgon are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,442 against 1,384. On rating alone Smorgon would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Orsha score more

    1.08 goals a game over 64 matches for Smorgon, against 1.29 over 59 for Orsha.

  • Smorgon concede fewer

    Smorgon concede 1.38 a game, Orsha 2.47.

  • Orsha games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Smorgon matches, against 76% for Orsha. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Smorgon
Orsha
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1441.6
ELO
1383.8
64
ELO · Matches
59
1441.6
Current Team ELO
1383.8
1383.8
Current Opponent ELO
1441.6
57.83
Current ELO Difference
-57.83
0.58
Expected score
0.42
64
History Matches
59
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.10
46.64
Overperformance
42.78
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
59
1.09
PPG
0.86
28.1%
Win rate
23.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
15.3%
46.9%
Loss rate
61.0%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
94.9%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
76.3%
26.6%
Over 3.5 rate
47.5%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
30
1.19
PPG
1.00
34.4%
Win rate
30.0%
15.6%
Draw rate
10.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
34.4%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.71
32
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.29
62.5%
Scoring rate
72.9%
37.5%
BTTS rate
62.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
59.4%
Scoring rate
73.3%
31.3%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.10
61.9%
Scoring rate
70.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
65.0%
64
History Matches
59
1.08
Goals Mean
1.29
1.30
Goals Std
1.28
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
23.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.9%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
2.47
65.6%
Conceding rate
88.1%
1.47
Goals against per game
2.50
65.6%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.43
Goals against per game
1.75
66.7%
Conceding rate
90.0%
64
History Matches
59
1.38
Conceded Mean
2.47
1.27
Conceded Std
1.74
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
72.9%
21.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
40.7%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
2.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
59
0.96
Result entropy
0.85
1.91
Goal Difference Std
2.42
3.65
Stability score
15.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
59
13
Lead Matches
9
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.74
20
Trailing Matches
29
10.0%
Non-loss rate
10.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
3.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.37
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
31
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
20
1.10
PPG
1.10
28.6%
Win rate
30.0%
23.8%
Draw rate
20.0%
47.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
21
Current Competition Matches
20
1.10
Current Competition PPG
1.10
-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.65
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.23
Portability PPG Range
0.43
84.10
Portability Score
69.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO57.83
PPG0.23
GF-0.21
GA-1.10
PPG0.00
PPG0.19
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate22.5%
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate14.4%
Failed-to-score rate14.0%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-1.10
Conceded Std-0.47
Clean-sheet rate22.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.29
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-1.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches5
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.51
Stability score-11.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate17.9%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate0.00
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.59
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.36
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score14.33
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO57.83
Current Opponent ELO-57.83
Current ELO Difference115.7
Expected score0.16
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Smorgon

L
Volna1–0Smorgon1 Nov · away
Pick: Volna 45% · hit
L
Shakhter Soligorsk4–0Smorgon24 Oct · away
Pick: Shakhter Soligorsk 45% · hit
L
Dinamo Minsk II3–2Smorgon30 Aug · away
Pick: Dinamo Minsk II 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Orsha

W
Orsha3–2Bumprom31 Oct · home
Pick: Bumprom 57% · missed
W
Minsk II1–5Orsha24 Oct · away
Pick: Minsk II 55% · missed
W
Slonim1–2Orsha30 Aug · away
Pick: Slonim 58% · missed
L
Orsha1–4Dinamo Minsk II26 Aug · home
Pick: Dinamo Minsk II 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Smorgon and Orsha meet in 1. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. The match is played at Yunost Stadium, Smorgon. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Smorgon win 55.5%, draw 23.1%, Orsha win 21.4%. The pick is Smorgon win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.8%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.