ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

Manresa vs Barcelona B

Manresa Home · Elo 1,554
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Barcelona B Away · Elo 1,539
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Manresa win
Manresa winPick
50.3%
Draw
23.3%
Barcelona B win
26.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.4%
Under 2.545.6%

How much we know

Manresa history55 matches
Barcelona B history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Manresa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,554 against 1,539. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Barcelona B score more

    1.40 goals a game over 55 matches for Manresa, against 1.70 over 54 for Barcelona B.

  • Manresa concede fewer

    Manresa concede 1.13 a game, Barcelona B 1.31.

  • Barcelona B games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Manresa matches, against 54% for Barcelona B. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Manresa
Barcelona B
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.7
ELO
1538.7
55
ELO · Matches
54
1553.7
Current Team ELO
1538.7
1538.7
Current Opponent ELO
1553.7
15.03
Current ELO Difference
-15.03
0.52
Expected score
0.48
55
History Matches
54
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
52.87
Overperformance
53.13
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
54
1.55
PPG
1.46
41.8%
Win rate
40.7%
29.1%
Draw rate
24.1%
29.1%
Loss rate
35.2%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.7%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.80
PPG
1.16
48.0%
Win rate
32.0%
36.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
16.0%
Loss rate
48.0%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
28.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
74.5%
Scoring rate
77.8%
49.1%
BTTS rate
53.7%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.56
76.0%
Scoring rate
72.0%
44.0%
BTTS rate
52.0%
55
History Matches
54
1.40
Goals Mean
1.70
1.18
Goals Std
1.33
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
55.6%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.4%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
1.31
61.8%
Conceding rate
72.2%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.52
56.0%
Conceding rate
76.0%
55
History Matches
54
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.18
Conceded Std
1.14
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.0%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
54
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.81
1.42
Stability score
2.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
54
20
Lead Matches
17
65.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.84
11
Trailing Matches
16
36.4%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
36.4%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.98
Rest days
189.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.10
1.03
Portability PPG Range
0.22
51.41
Portability Score
83.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO15.03
PPG0.08
GF-0.30
GA-0.19
PPG0.64
PPG-1.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.39
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-0.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.01
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate23.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.38
Portability PPG Range0.82
Portability Score-32.47
Rest days-111.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.61
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO15.03
Current Opponent ELO-15.03
Current ELO Difference30.05
Expected score0.04
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Manresa

L
Olot1–0Manresa1 Nov · away
Pick: Manresa 37% · missed
W
Manresa3–2Ebro24 Oct · home
Pick: Manresa 38% · hit
D
Barbastro0–0Manresa18 Oct · away
Pick: Manresa 35% · missed
W
Reddis1–4Manresa4 Oct · away
Pick: Reddis 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Barcelona B

W
Barcelona B2–1Arnedo31 Oct · home
Pick: Arnedo 47% · missed
L
Olot2–0Barcelona B25 Oct · away
Pick: Olot 45% · hit
W
Barcelona B2–1Utebo17 Oct · home
Pick: Utebo 40% · missed
W
Tudelano1–2Barcelona B4 Oct · away
Pick: Tudelano 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Manresa and Barcelona B meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Manresa win 50.3%, draw 23.3%, Barcelona B win 26.4%. The pick is Manresa win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.4%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.