Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca
Match result probability Model pick: Maria da Fonte win
Maria da Fonte winPick
39.4%
Draw
32.8%
Ponte da Barca win
27.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes44.4%
No55.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.538.2%
Under 2.561.8%
How much we know
Maria da Fonte history4 matches
Ponte da Barca history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Maria da Fonte
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Maria da Fonte are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,483 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Ponte da Barca score far more
0.50 goals a game over 4 matches for Maria da Fonte, against 1.00 over 2 for Ponte da Barca.
-
Ponte da Barca concede fewer
Maria da Fonte concede 1.25 a game, Ponte da Barca 1.00.
-
Ponte da Barca games more often go over 2.5 goals
25% of Maria da Fonte matches, against 50% for Ponte da Barca. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ponte da Barca@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1483.3
ELO
1500.0
4
ELO · Matches
2
1483.3
Current Team ELO
1500.0
1500.0
Current Opponent ELO
1483.3
-16.79
Current ELO Difference
16.79
0.48
Expected score
0.52
4
History Matches
2
-0.21
Residual Mean
0.00
46.53
Overperformance
50.01
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals 160
4
Matches
2
0.75
PPG
1.50
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
1.25
Goals against per game
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
4
Matches
2
0.75
PPG
1.50
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
1.25
Goals against per game
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.00
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals 90
4
Matches
2
0.75
PPG
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
Venue performance10 signals 100
2
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
4
History Matches
2
0.50
Goals Mean
1.00
0.50
Goals Std
0.00
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
0.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
4
History Matches
2
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.83
Conceded Std
1.00
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
4
History Matches
2
0.51
Result entropy
0.63
1.09
Goal Difference Std
1.00
48.81
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Non-loss rateTrailing Win Rate
4
Eligible Matches
2
0
Lead Matches
1
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
0
Goal timing5 signals 50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
2
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
1
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
4
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-16.79
PPG-0.75
GF-0.50
GA0.25
PPG0.00
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.75
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate50.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-1.00
Failed-to-score rate50.0%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate-0.50
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score11.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Trailing Matches0
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Long Rest History Matches2
Current Team ELO-16.79
Current Opponent ELO16.79
Current ELO Difference-33.58
Expected score-0.05
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.21
Overperformance-3.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Maria da Fonte
L
Montalegre2–0Maria da Fonte1 Nov · away
Pick: Montalegre 55% · hit L
Maria da Fonte1–2Bragança25 Oct · home
Pick: Bragança 42% · hit W
Maria da Fonte1–0Uniao Nogueirense30 Aug · home
Pick: Maria da Fonte 45% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Ponte da Barca
W
Ponte da Barca2–1Vinhais1 Nov · home
Pick: Ponte da Barca 67% · hit W
Montalegre0–1Ponte da Barca25 Oct · away
Pick: Montalegre 49% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Maria da Fonte and Ponte da Barca meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Maria da Fonte win 39.4%, draw 32.8%, Ponte da Barca win 27.8%. The pick is Maria da Fonte win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.2%. Both teams to score: 44.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.