ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A Portugal Group A - 8 2026

Chaves II vs Bragança

Chaves II Home · Elo 1,495
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bragança Away · Elo 1,573
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bragança win
Chaves II win
28.7%
Draw
28.8%
Bragança winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.5%
Under 2.554.5%

How much we know

Chaves II history29 matches
Bragança history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bragança are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bragança are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,573 against 1,495. On rating alone Bragança would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.45 goals a game over 29 matches for Chaves II, against 1.43 over 47 for Bragança.

  • Bragança concede fewer

    Chaves II concede 1.14 a game, Bragança 0.96.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Chaves II matches, against 47% for Bragança. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chaves II
Bragança@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.0
ELO
1573.0
29
ELO · Matches
47
1495.0
Current Team ELO
1573.0
1573.0
Current Opponent ELO
1495.0
-78.07
Current ELO Difference
78.07
0.39
Expected score
0.61
29
History Matches
47
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
49.25
Overperformance
55.73
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
29
Matches
47
1.34
PPG
1.72
34.5%
Win rate
48.9%
31.0%
Draw rate
25.5%
34.5%
Loss rate
25.5%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
68.1%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
19.1%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
22
1.64
PPG
1.32
50.0%
Win rate
36.4%
14.3%
Draw rate
22.7%
35.7%
Loss rate
40.9%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
14
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.43
75.9%
Scoring rate
78.7%
55.2%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.14
78.6%
Scoring rate
63.6%
42.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
29
History Matches
47
1.45
Goals Mean
1.43
1.25
Goals Std
1.20
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
27.6%
Scored 3+ rate
19.1%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
0.96
72.4%
Conceding rate
66.0%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.14
57.1%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
29
History Matches
47
1.14
Conceded Mean
0.96
0.94
Conceded Std
0.90
31.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.4%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.3%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
29
History Matches
47
1.00
Result entropy
0.95
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.54
0.11
Stability score
4.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
47
10
Lead Matches
13
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
61.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.69
4
Trailing Matches
11
25.0%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
14
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
14
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
3
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.21
—
Portability PPG Range
0.51
—
Portability Score
70.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
29
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-78.07
PPG-0.38
GF0.02
GA0.18
PPG-0.50
PPG0.32
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate15.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-18
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate7.6%
Conceded 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches-18
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-4.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.57
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate18.5%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Current Team ELO-78.07
Current Opponent ELO78.07
Current ELO Difference-156.1
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chaves II

L
Maia Lidador1–0Chaves II1 Nov · away
Pick: Chaves II 35% · missed
L
Chaves II0–1SC Braga B25 Oct · home
Pick: SC Braga B 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bragança

L
Bragança0–1Tirsense1 Nov · home
Pick: Tirsense 37% · hit
W
Maria da Fonte1–2Bragança25 Oct · away
Pick: Bragança 42% · hit
L
União de Leiria2–1Bragança17 Oct · away
Pick: União de Leiria 51% · hit
W
Rebordelo0–4Bragança30 Aug · away
Pick: Bragança 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chaves II and Bragança meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Chaves II win 28.7%, draw 28.8%, Bragança win 42.5%. The pick is Bragança win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.5%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.