ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A Portugal Group A - 8 2026

Tirsense vs Montalegre

Tirsense Home · Elo 1,544
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Montalegre Away · Elo 1,512
Estadio Abel Alves de Figueiredo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tirsense win
Tirsense winPick
58.9%
Draw
24.5%
Montalegre win
16.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes38.9%
No61.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.2%
Under 2.556.8%

How much we know

Tirsense history44 matches
Montalegre history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Tirsense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tirsense are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,544 against 1,512. On rating alone Tirsense would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Tirsense score more

    1.32 goals a game over 44 matches for Tirsense, against 1.00 over 2 for Montalegre.

  • Montalegre concede fewer

    Tirsense concede 1.11 a game, Montalegre 0.00.

  • Tirsense games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Tirsense matches, against 0% for Montalegre. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tirsense
Montalegre@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.8
ELO
1512.3
44
ELO · Matches
2
1543.8
Current Team ELO
1512.3
1512.3
Current Opponent ELO
1543.8
31.58
Current ELO Difference
-31.58
0.55
Expected score
0.45
44
History Matches
2
0.05
Residual Mean
0.31
53.39
Overperformance
52.80
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.40
Goals against per game
0.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
10
Matches
2
2.10
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.20
Goals against per game
0.00
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.00
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.00
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
2.00
38.6%
Win rate
50.0%
34.1%
Draw rate
50.0%
27.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
1
1.59
PPG
1.00
45.5%
Win rate
0.0%
22.7%
Draw rate
100.0%
31.8%
Loss rate
0.0%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
22
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.32
Goals for per game
1.00
72.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
43.2%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.00
81.8%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
44
History Matches
2
1.32
Goals Mean
1.00
1.16
Goals Std
1.00
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
0.00
56.8%
Conceding rate
0.0%
1.18
Goals against per game
0.00
63.6%
Conceding rate
0.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
44
History Matches
2
1.11
Conceded Mean
0.00
1.28
Conceded Std
0.00
31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
2
0.99
Result entropy
0.63
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.00
0.91
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
2
11
Lead Matches
1
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
1.00
9
Trailing Matches
0
22.2%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.26
Portability PPG Std
—
0.55
Portability PPG Range
—
66.18
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.58
PPG-0.50
GF0.32
GA1.11
PPG1.00
PPG0.59
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches42
Clean-sheet rate-0.57
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate-0.64
Failed-to-score rate-0.82
History Matches42
Goals Mean0.32
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate22.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate15.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches42
Conceded Mean1.11
Conceded Std1.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.57
Conceded 2+ rate31.8%
Conceded 3+ rate13.6%
Venue Conceded Mean1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches42
Result entropy0.36
Goal Difference Std0.71
Stability score-36.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches42
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.27
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches9
Halftime Coverage Matches42
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.64
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.26
Long Rest History Matches20
Current Team ELO31.58
Current Opponent ELO-31.58
Current ELO Difference63.15
Expected score0.09
History Matches42
Residual Mean-0.26
Overperformance0.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tirsense

W
Bragança0–1Tirsense1 Nov · away
Pick: Tirsense 37% · hit
L
Tirsense3–5Maia Lidador25 Oct · home
Pick: Tirsense 70% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Montalegre

W
Montalegre2–0Maria da Fonte1 Nov · home
Pick: Montalegre 55% · hit
L
Montalegre0–1Ponte da Barca25 Oct · home
Pick: Montalegre 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tirsense and Montalegre meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Abel Alves de Figueiredo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tirsense win 58.9%, draw 24.5%, Montalegre win 16.6%. The pick is Tirsense win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.2%. Both teams to score: 38.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.