ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A Portugal Group A - 8 2026

Rebordosa vs Brito

Rebordosa Home · Elo 1,551
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brito Away · Elo 1,539
Complexo Desportivo Azevido Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rebordosa win
Rebordosa winPick
57.5%
Draw
23.2%
Brito win
19.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.5%
No49.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%

How much we know

Rebordosa history47 matches
Brito history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Rebordosa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,551 against 1,539. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.34 goals a game over 47 matches for Rebordosa, against 1.46 over 41 for Brito.

  • Rebordosa concede fewer

    Rebordosa concede 0.87 a game, Brito 1.27.

  • Brito games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Rebordosa matches, against 49% for Brito. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rebordosa
Brito@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.4
ELO
1539.0
47
ELO · Matches
41
1551.4
Current Team ELO
1539.0
1539.0
Current Opponent ELO
1551.4
12.37
Current ELO Difference
-12.37
0.52
Expected score
0.48
47
History Matches
41
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
53.88
Overperformance
52.66
-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
41
1.74
PPG
1.71
51.1%
Win rate
53.7%
21.3%
Draw rate
9.8%
27.7%
Loss rate
36.6%
55.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.7%
38.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
21.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
22
2.21
PPG
1.27
66.7%
Win rate
40.9%
20.8%
Draw rate
4.5%
12.5%
Loss rate
54.5%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
24
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.46
78.7%
Scoring rate
70.7%
40.4%
BTTS rate
46.3%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.18
87.5%
Scoring rate
59.1%
37.5%
BTTS rate
40.9%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
47
History Matches
41
1.34
Goals Mean
1.46
1.12
Goals Std
1.33
78.7%
Scored 1+ rate
70.7%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.9%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
19.5%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.87
Goals against per game
1.27
59.6%
Conceding rate
68.3%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.64
45.8%
Conceding rate
77.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
41
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.27
0.91
Conceded Std
1.21
21.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.6%
4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.6%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
54.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
54.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
41
0.94
Result entropy
0.85
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.82
6.43
Stability score
15.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
41
13
Lead Matches
11
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.82
6
Trailing Matches
8
16.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.92
19
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.07
1.56
Portability PPG Range
0.14
43.85
Portability Score
87.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO12.37
PPG0.04
GF-0.12
GA-0.40
PPG0.00
PPG0.94
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate31.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate8.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.62
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches6
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-9.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.57
Portability PPG Range1.42
Portability Score-43.88
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO12.37
Current Opponent ELO-12.37
Current ELO Difference24.75
Expected score0.04
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rebordosa

D
Celoricense0–0Rebordosa1 Nov · away
Pick: Celoricense 42% · missed
W
Rebordosa8–0Vinhais25 Oct · home
Pick: Rebordosa 73% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Brito

L
Brito2–4Os Limianos1 Nov · home
Pick: Brito 38% · missed
W
Vila Meã1–3Brito25 Oct · away
Pick: Vila Meã 44% · missed
L
Brito0–1Vitória de Sernache18 Oct · home
Pick: Brito 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rebordosa and Brito meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Complexo Desportivo Azevido. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Rebordosa win 57.5%, draw 23.2%, Brito win 19.3%. The pick is Rebordosa win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.9%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.