Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC
What we said before kickoff Result: Carabobo FC win
Metropolitanos FC win
31.9%
Draw
27.0%
Carabobo FC winPick Result
41.2%
How our picks did
Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.
Match result
Our pickCarabobo FC win · 41.2%
What happenedCarabobo FC win · we gave it 41.2%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 51.7%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 51.7%
What happenedNo · 0–2
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Carabobo FC win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
41%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.4
on average A pick at 41% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
23'
GoalEzequiel neira · assist Darwin Machís
40'
Yellow cardEdson Castillo
Yellow cardDavid Zalzman
44' Red cardKavier Ortiz
45+1' 46'
SubstitutionJonathan Bilbao off · Yohandry Orozco on
46'
SubstitutionEdson Castillo off · Sebastian Mendoza on
SubstitutionDaniel Rivillo off · Jose Alexander Riasco Brizuela on
46' 57'
GoalDarwin Machís · assist Bryan Castillo
Yellow cardRafael Sangiovani
61' 62'
SubstitutionFranner Xavier López Castillo off · Matias Adrian Nuñez on
SubstitutionMiku Fedor off · Augustin Bianciotti on
65' 71'
SubstitutionLoureins Manuel Martínez Eizaga off · Exon Arzú on
SubstitutionDavid Zalzman off · Saimon Ramirez on
71' SubstitutionRichard Figueroa off · Marlon Rodriguez on
72' 74'
SubstitutionDarwin Machís off · Dimas Meza on
SubstitutionYhonattan Yustiz off · Alan Vazquez on
77' SubstitutionGeorge Ayimbire Ayine off · Rafael Acosta on
84' Lineups
Metropolitanos FC 4-2-3-1 · Carabobo FC 3-4-2-1
1Yustiz 19Ramírez 2Manenti 4Ferro 3Rivillo 15Zalzman 8Ayine 5Sangiovani 7Fedor 88Figueroa 9Ortiz 1Silva 3Fuentes 32Neira 28Bilbao 17Oliveros 16López 5Castillo 2Guaramato 11Machís 19Martínez 9Castillo
Substitutes · Metropolitanos FC · Coach F. Stifano
- 17E. Valderrey
- 30J. Navarro
- 11S. Ramírez
- 18J. Vargas
- 25A. Vazquez
- 20Rafael Eduardo Acosta Cammarota
- 99A. Bianciotti
- 32C. Camarillo
- 6Y. Caricote
- 23Marlon Rodriguez
- 21R. Garcés
- 16J. Riasco
Substitutes · Carabobo FC · Coach Daniel Farías
- 14J. Berríos
- 13J. Duran
- 21A. González
- 30S. Mendoza
- 23Dimas Rafael Meza Daniz
- 26M. Núñez
- 10Y. Orozco
- 8J. Pérez
- 24E. Ramírez
- 12K. Roa
- 6A. Bahachille
- 20E. Arzú
Both teams to score
Yes51.7%
No48.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%
How much we know
Metropolitanos FC history46 matches
Carabobo FC history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
- Kickoff4 Nov · 23:30 UTC
- Full time: 0–2Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.5 Nov · 03:19 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.
Why Carabobo FC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,556 against 1,567. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.39 goals a game over 46 matches for Metropolitanos FC, against 1.35 over 68 for Carabobo FC.
-
Carabobo FC concede fewer
Metropolitanos FC concede 1.37 a game, Carabobo FC 0.90.
-
Metropolitanos FC games more often go over 2.5 goals
50% of Metropolitanos FC matches, against 32% for Carabobo FC. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Carabobo FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1556.3
ELO
1567.5
46
ELO · Matches
68
1556.3
Current Team ELO
1567.5
1567.5
Current Opponent ELO
1556.3
-11.16
Current ELO Difference
11.16
0.48
Expected score
0.52
46
History Matches
68
0.07
Residual Mean
0.06
54.61
Overperformance
54.34
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals 90
46
Matches
68
1.43
PPG
1.66
37.0%
Win rate
45.6%
32.6%
Draw rate
29.4%
30.4%
Loss rate
25.0%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
60.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
32.4%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
31
1.50
PPG
1.29
41.7%
Win rate
32.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
32.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
35.5%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
29.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
24
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.35
80.4%
Scoring rate
70.6%
65.2%
BTTS rate
39.7%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.10
87.5%
Scoring rate
61.3%
79.2%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.65
85.0%
Scoring rate
78.3%
55.0%
BTTS rate
52.2%
46
History Matches
68
1.39
Goals Mean
1.35
1.05
Goals Std
1.42
80.4%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
43.5%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
8.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.37
Goals against per game
0.90
78.3%
Conceding rate
55.9%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.06
87.5%
Conceding rate
71.0%
1.05
Goals against per game
0.96
65.0%
Conceding rate
60.9%
46
History Matches
68
1.37
Conceded Mean
0.90
1.13
Conceded Std
1.02
37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.5%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
44.1%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
44.1%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
44.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
46
History Matches
68
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.69
0.30
Stability score
3.09
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
46
Eligible Matches
68
12
Lead Matches
19
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
94.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.96
10
Trailing Matches
11
50.0%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
74.06
Rest days
75.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
9
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
19
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
25
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals 170
20
Matches
23
1.90
PPG
1.65
55.0%
Win rate
43.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
34.8%
20.0%
Loss rate
21.7%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
20
Current Competition Matches
23
1.90
Current Competition PPG
1.65
0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.70
3
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.77
0.78
Portability PPG Range
2.20
56.34
Portability Score
39.49
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
46
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-11.16
PPG-0.23
GF0.04
GA0.47
PPG0.25
PPG0.21
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-22
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-22
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate9.8%
Scored 2+ rate11.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches-22
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.73
History Matches-22
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score-2.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches-22
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate40.9%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-22
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches-3
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.35
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-1.43
Portability Score16.85
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-8
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Current Team ELO-11.16
Current Opponent ELO11.16
Current ELO Difference-22.33
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-22
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Metropolitanos FC
D
Carabobo FC1–1Metropolitanos FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Carabobo FC 56% · missed D
Metropolitanos FC0–0Portuguesa FC28 Oct · home
Pick: Metropolitanos FC 44% · missed D
Deportivo La Guaira2–2Metropolitanos FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo La Guaira 63% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Carabobo FC
D
Carabobo FC1–1Metropolitanos FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Carabobo FC 56% · missed W
Portuguesa FC1–3Carabobo FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Carabobo FC 37% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Metropolitanos FC and Carabobo FC finished 0–2 in Primera División on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Metropolitanos FC win 31.9%, draw 27.0%, Carabobo FC win 41.2%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.