Mogren vs Berane
What we said before kickoff Result: Mogren win
Mogren winPick Result
47.0%
Draw
20.9%
Berane win
32.1%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickMogren win · 47.0%
What happenedMogren win · we gave it 47.0%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 56.6%
What happenedOver · 4 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 51.6%
What happenedNo · 4–0
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Mogren win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
47%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.1
on average A pick at 47% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes51.6%
No48.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%
How much we know
Mogren history2 matches
Berane history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 07:01 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full time: 4–0Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Mogren are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,499 against 1,479. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Mogren score far more
2.00 goals a game over 2 matches for Mogren, against 1.21 over 39 for Berane.
-
Berane concede fewer
Mogren concede 1.50 a game, Berane 1.00.
-
Mogren games more often go over 2.5 goals
100% of Mogren matches, against 36% for Berane. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1499.2
ELO
1478.9
2
ELO · Matches
39
1499.2
Current Team ELO
1478.9
1478.9
Current Opponent ELO
1499.2
20.33
Current ELO Difference
-20.33
0.53
Expected score
0.47
2
History Matches
39
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
49.82
Overperformance
48.27
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals 160
2
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
0.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals 90
2
Matches
39
1.50
PPG
1.36
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
35.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
30.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals 100
1
Matches
19
0.00
PPG
1.42
0.0%
Win rate
31.6%
0.0%
Draw rate
47.4%
100.0%
Loss rate
21.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.9%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
36.8%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
1
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.21
100.0%
Scoring rate
64.1%
100.0%
BTTS rate
41.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.21
100.0%
Scoring rate
57.9%
100.0%
BTTS rate
31.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
2
History Matches
39
2.00
Goals Mean
1.21
1.00
Goals Std
1.16
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
64.1%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.0%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
59.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.68
100.0%
Conceding rate
42.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
39
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.50
Conceded Std
1.04
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.2%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
57.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
57.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
2
History Matches
39
0.63
Result entropy
1.00
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.54
36.91
Stability score
0.18
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
2
Eligible Matches
39
1
Lead Matches
9
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.93
0
Trailing Matches
7
—
Non-loss rate
28.6%
—
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
1.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
72.75
Rest days
72.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
26
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
1
Long Rest History Matches
12
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
2
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO20.33
PPG0.14
GF0.79
GA0.50
PPG1.50
PPG-1.42
PPG1.30
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-37
Clean-sheet rate-0.41
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.58
Failed-to-score rate-0.42
History Matches-37
Goals Mean0.79
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate35.9%
Scored 2+ rate9.0%
Scored 3+ rate42.3%
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches-37
Conceded Mean0.50
Conceded Std-0.54
Clean-sheet rate-0.41
Conceded 2+ rate21.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean1.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches-37
Result entropy-0.37
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score36.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches-37
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate11.1%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-7
Halftime Coverage Matches-37
First Half Goals For Mean1.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-26
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Current Team ELO20.33
Current Opponent ELO-20.33
Current ELO Difference40.67
Expected score0.06
History Matches-37
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Mogren
W
Iskra3–4Mogren25 Oct · away
Pick: Iskra 52% · missed D
Mogren1–1Kom4 Oct · home
Pick: Mogren 50% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Berane
L
Zeta5–2Berane25 Oct · away
Pick: Zeta 43% · hit L
Berane0–5Jedinstvo15 Oct · home
Pick: Jedinstvo 39% · hit L
Berane1–2Jedinstvo4 Oct · home
Pick: Jedinstvo 38% · hit L
Lovćen3–2Berane29 Aug · away
Pick: Lovćen 50% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Mogren and Berane finished 4–0 in Second League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC, before kickoff: Mogren win 47.0%, draw 20.9%, Berane win 32.1%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.