ScoreProb
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria 2026

Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod

Natsional Sofia Home
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kostinbrod Away
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kostinbrod win
Natsional Sofia win
21.6%
Draw
20.7%
Kostinbrod winPick
57.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.7%
Under 2.542.3%

How much we know

Natsional Sofia history—
Kostinbrod history—
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 3 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 30 Oct · 02:13 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Natsional Sofia

L
Chavdar Etropole4–2Natsional Sofia31 Oct · away
Pick: Chavdar Etropole 53% · hit
W
Balkan Botevgrad1–3Natsional Sofia24 Oct · away
Pick: Balkan Botevgrad 66% · missed
L
Natsional Sofia1–2Septemvri Sofia II7 Oct · home
Pick: Septemvri Sofia II 54% · hit
L
Natsional Sofia1–3Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa4 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 40% · hit
D
Septemvri Simitli3–3Natsional Sofia29 Aug · away
Pick: Septemvri Simitli 74% · missed

Kostinbrod

D
Kostinbrod3–3Bansko31 Oct · home
Pick: Bansko 48% · missed
W
Levski Sofia II1–2Kostinbrod29 Aug · away
Pick: Levski Sofia II 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Natsional Sofia and Kostinbrod meet in Third League - Southwest on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Natsional Sofia win 21.6%, draw 20.7%, Kostinbrod win 57.7%. The pick is Kostinbrod win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.7%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.