ScoreProb
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 11 2026

Slavia Sofia II vs Bansko

Slavia Sofia II Home · Elo 1,517
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bansko Away · Elo 1,518
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bansko win
Slavia Sofia II win
35.3%
Draw
24.5%
Bansko winPick
40.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.3%
Under 2.547.7%

How much we know

Slavia Sofia II history49 matches
Bansko history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bansko are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,517 against 1,518. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Slavia Sofia II score more

    1.63 goals a game over 49 matches for Slavia Sofia II, against 1.29 over 52 for Bansko.

  • Defences are close

    Slavia Sofia II concede 1.33 a game, Bansko 1.25.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Slavia Sofia II matches, against 52% for Bansko. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Slavia Sofia II
Bansko
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.9
ELO
1517.6
49
ELO · Matches
52
1516.9
Current Team ELO
1517.6
1517.6
Current Opponent ELO
1516.9
-0.79
Current ELO Difference
0.79
0.50
Expected score
0.50
49
History Matches
52
0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
51.32
Overperformance
51.53
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
2.24
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.88
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
52
1.43
PPG
1.35
38.8%
Win rate
34.6%
26.5%
Draw rate
30.8%
34.7%
Loss rate
34.6%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
71.2%
55.1%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.68
PPG
1.00
48.0%
Win rate
24.0%
24.0%
Draw rate
28.0%
28.0%
Loss rate
48.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.63
Goals for per game
1.29
77.6%
Scoring rate
67.3%
57.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.88
Goals for per game
1.04
88.0%
Scoring rate
64.0%
64.0%
BTTS rate
48.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
52
1.63
Goals Mean
1.29
1.53
Goals Std
1.17
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.4%
24.5%
Scored 3+ rate
17.3%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.25
73.5%
Conceding rate
67.3%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.36
76.0%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
52
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.25
Conceded Std
1.17
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.5%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
52
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
2.06
Goal Difference Std
1.63
1.09
Stability score
0.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
19
9
Lead Matches
4
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.83
5
Trailing Matches
5
40.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
40.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
19
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.88
Rest days
73.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
25
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
18
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
2.50
25.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
25.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
2.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.02
Portability PPG Range
1.25
52.10
Portability Score
45.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-0.79
PPG0.08
GF0.34
GA0.08
PPG-1.75
PPG0.68
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate10.2%
Scored 2+ rate2.5%
Scored 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std1.19
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score0.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.48
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate40.0%
Trailing Win Rate40.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.23
Portability Score6.20
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO-0.79
Current Opponent ELO0.79
Current ELO Difference-1.59
Expected score0.00
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Slavia Sofia II

D
Slavia Sofia II1–1Strumska Slava24 Oct · home
Pick: Strumska Slava 50% · missed
L
FK Minyor Pernik5–1Slavia Sofia II7 Oct · away
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 56% · hit
W
Slavia Sofia II1–0Balkan Botevgrad29 Aug · home
Pick: Slavia Sofia II 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bansko

D
Kostinbrod3–3Bansko31 Oct · away
Pick: Bansko 48% · missed
W
Septemvri Sofia II0–1Bansko24 Oct · away
Pick: Bansko 36% · hit
W
Bansko1–0Botev Ihtiman7 Oct · home
Pick: Bansko 50% · hit
W
Bansko4–1Belasitsa29 Aug · home
Pick: Bansko 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Slavia Sofia II and Bansko meet in Third League - Southwest on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Slavia Sofia II win 35.3%, draw 24.5%, Bansko win 40.2%. The pick is Bansko win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.3%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.