ScoreProb
Erovnuli Liga 2 Georgia Round 32 2026

Odishi 1919 vs Samtredia

Odishi 1919 Home · Elo 1,566
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Samtredia Away · Elo 1,518
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Odishi 1919 win
Odishi 1919 winPick
46.4%
Draw
26.0%
Samtredia win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.1%
Under 2.549.9%

How much we know

Odishi 1919 history60 matches
Samtredia history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Odishi 1919 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Odishi 1919 are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,566 against 1,518. On rating alone Odishi 1919 would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Odishi 1919 score more

    1.58 goals a game over 60 matches for Odishi 1919, against 1.32 over 63 for Samtredia.

  • Odishi 1919 concede fewer

    Odishi 1919 concede 0.98 a game, Samtredia 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Odishi 1919 matches, against 52% for Samtredia. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Odishi 1919
Samtredia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1565.9
ELO
1518.1
60
ELO · Matches
63
1565.9
Current Team ELO
1518.1
1518.1
Current Opponent ELO
1565.9
47.87
Current ELO Difference
-47.87
0.57
Expected score
0.43
60
History Matches
63
0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
53.45
Overperformance
51.01
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
63
1.80
PPG
1.33
53.3%
Win rate
34.9%
20.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
26.7%
Loss rate
36.5%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
32
1.96
PPG
1.09
57.1%
Win rate
31.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
15.6%
17.9%
Loss rate
53.1%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
65.6%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
28
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.32
71.7%
Scoring rate
76.2%
46.7%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.89
Goals for per game
1.31
82.1%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.41
63.6%
Scoring rate
81.8%
59.1%
BTTS rate
63.6%
60
History Matches
63
1.58
Goals Mean
1.32
1.39
Goals Std
1.07
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
76.2%
48.3%
Scored 2+ rate
38.1%
23.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
1.89
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.30
66.7%
Conceding rate
76.2%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.56
60.7%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.73
86.4%
Conceding rate
81.8%
60
History Matches
63
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.30
0.99
Conceded Std
1.03
21.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.1%
5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
63
0.92
Result entropy
1.00
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.57
8.10
Stability score
0.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
63
19
Lead Matches
26
89.5%
Lead Win Rate
65.4%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.73
9
Trailing Matches
17
11.1%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
43
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
16
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.27
PPG
1.14
31.8%
Win rate
31.8%
31.8%
Draw rate
18.2%
36.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.27
Current Competition PPG
1.14
-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.32
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.61
0.86
Portability PPG Range
1.36
56.93
Portability Score
44.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO47.87
PPG0.47
GF0.27
GA-0.32
PPG0.14
PPG0.87
PPG-1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate10.2%
Scored 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.32
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score7.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate24.1%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.18
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score11.98
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.60
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO47.87
Current Opponent ELO-47.87
Current ELO Difference95.74
Expected score0.14
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Odishi 1919

W
Odishi 19193–0Merani Martvili24 Oct · home
Pick: Odishi 1919 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Samtredia

W
Samtredia4–1Shturmi31 Oct · home
Pick: Shturmi 36% · missed
L
Gori1–0Samtredia24 Oct · away
Pick: Gori 40% · hit
L
Samtredia0–1Aragvi Dusheti17 Oct · home
Pick: Samtredia 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Odishi 1919 and Samtredia meet in Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Odishi 1919 win 46.4%, draw 26.0%, Samtredia win 27.6%. The pick is Odishi 1919 win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.1%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.