ScoreProb
Erovnuli Liga 2 Georgia Round 32 2026

Gareji vs Merani Martvili

Gareji Home · Elo 1,536
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Merani Martvili Away · Elo 1,507
Central stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gareji win
Gareji winPick
53.8%
Draw
24.2%
Merani Martvili win
22.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%
No50.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Gareji history65 matches
Merani Martvili history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 2 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Gareji are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gareji are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,536 against 1,507. On rating alone Gareji would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.15 goals a game over 65 matches for Gareji, against 1.23 over 61 for Merani Martvili.

  • Gareji concede fewer

    Gareji concede 1.25 a game, Merani Martvili 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Gareji matches, against 46% for Merani Martvili. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gareji
Merani Martvili@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1535.6
ELO
1506.8
65
ELO · Matches
61
1535.6
Current Team ELO
1506.8
1506.8
Current Opponent ELO
1535.6
28.88
Current ELO Difference
-28.88
0.54
Expected score
0.46
65
History Matches
61
0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
52.27
Overperformance
50.27
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
61
1.29
PPG
1.38
32.3%
Win rate
36.1%
32.3%
Draw rate
29.5%
35.4%
Loss rate
34.4%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.1%
41.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.9%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
23.0%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
31
1.30
PPG
1.23
33.3%
Win rate
32.3%
30.3%
Draw rate
25.8%
36.4%
Loss rate
41.9%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
33
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
1.23
70.8%
Scoring rate
72.1%
55.4%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.23
69.7%
Scoring rate
64.5%
54.5%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.09
77.3%
Scoring rate
63.6%
45.5%
BTTS rate
45.5%
65
History Matches
61
1.15
Goals Mean
1.23
1.04
Goals Std
1.27
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
29.2%
Scored 2+ rate
32.8%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
8.2%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.39
73.8%
Conceding rate
72.1%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.52
75.8%
Conceding rate
77.4%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.05
54.5%
Conceding rate
63.6%
65
History Matches
61
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.08
Conceded Std
1.31
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.7%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
61
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.74
0.09
Stability score
0.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
61
14
Lead Matches
15
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.71
22
Trailing Matches
17
36.4%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.90
Rest days
76.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
48
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
16
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.95
PPG
1.41
54.5%
Win rate
36.4%
31.8%
Draw rate
31.8%
13.6%
Loss rate
31.8%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
27.3%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
0.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.95
Current Competition PPG
1.41
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.05
6
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.01
0.98
Portability PPG Range
0.02
50.48
Portability Score
98.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO28.88
PPG-0.08
GF-0.08
GA-0.15
PPG0.55
PPG0.08
PPG1.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.54
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.32
Stability score-0.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate11.4%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate18.7%
Trailing Win Rate7.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.45
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.48
Portability PPG Range0.96
Portability Score-47.54
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO28.88
Current Opponent ELO-28.88
Current ELO Difference57.76
Expected score0.08
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gareji

L
Kolkheti Poti3–0Gareji31 Oct · away
Pick: Gareji 40% · missed
D
Aragvi Dusheti0–0Gareji24 Oct · away
Pick: Gareji 38% · missed
W
Gareji2–1Telavi17 Oct · home
Pick: Gareji 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Merani Martvili

W
Merani Martvili2–0Telavi31 Oct · home
Pick: Telavi 40% · missed
L
Odishi 19193–0Merani Martvili24 Oct · away
Pick: Odishi 1919 49% · hit
W
Merani Martvili3–1Shturmi17 Oct · home
Pick: Shturmi 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gareji and Merani Martvili meet in Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at Central stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Gareji win 53.8%, draw 24.2%, Merani Martvili win 22.0%. The pick is Gareji win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.