ScoreProb
Erovnuli Liga 2 Georgia Round 32 2026

Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti

Aragvi Dusheti Home · Elo 1,589
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kolkheti Poti Away · Elo 1,394
Tsentraluri Stadioni, Dusheti Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aragvi Dusheti win
Aragvi Dusheti winPick
53.2%
Draw
22.3%
Kolkheti Poti win
24.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.2%
Under 2.541.8%

How much we know

Aragvi Dusheti history58 matches
Kolkheti Poti history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 2 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Aragvi Dusheti are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Aragvi Dusheti are rated 195 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,394. On rating alone Aragvi Dusheti would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Aragvi Dusheti score far more

    1.95 goals a game over 58 matches for Aragvi Dusheti, against 1.05 over 64 for Kolkheti Poti.

  • Aragvi Dusheti concede fewer

    Aragvi Dusheti concede 1.19 a game, Kolkheti Poti 1.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Aragvi Dusheti matches, against 55% for Kolkheti Poti. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aragvi Dusheti
Kolkheti Poti@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1589.0
ELO
1394.2
58
ELO · Matches
64
1589.0
Current Team ELO
1394.2
1394.2
Current Opponent ELO
1589.0
194.7
Current ELO Difference
-194.7
0.75
Expected score
0.25
58
History Matches
64
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.09
55.34
Overperformance
43.51
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.70
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
64
1.84
PPG
0.73
55.2%
Win rate
15.6%
19.0%
Draw rate
26.6%
25.9%
Loss rate
57.8%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.7%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
34
2.07
PPG
0.62
64.3%
Win rate
14.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
17.6%
21.4%
Loss rate
67.6%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
28
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.95
Goals for per game
1.05
79.3%
Scoring rate
65.6%
51.7%
BTTS rate
57.8%
2.46
Goals for per game
0.91
92.9%
Scoring rate
64.7%
71.4%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.05
Goals for per game
1.27
68.2%
Scoring rate
72.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
63.6%
58
History Matches
64
1.95
Goals Mean
1.05
1.81
Goals Std
1.08
79.3%
Scored 1+ rate
65.6%
48.3%
Scored 2+ rate
26.6%
25.9%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
2.46
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.75
67.2%
Conceding rate
85.9%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.97
78.6%
Conceding rate
91.2%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.36
81.8%
Conceding rate
81.8%
58
History Matches
64
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.14
Conceded Std
1.19
32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.7%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.4%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
8.8%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
8.8%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
64
0.90
Result entropy
0.87
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.66
9.60
Stability score
12.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
64
18
Lead Matches
16
94.4%
Lead Win Rate
37.5%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.48
13
Trailing Matches
18
30.8%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
30.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.73
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.65
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.41
PPG
0.86
40.9%
Win rate
18.2%
18.2%
Draw rate
31.8%
40.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
31.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.41
Current Competition PPG
0.86
-0.18
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.09
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.92
Portability PPG Range
0.25
56.03
Portability Score
79.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO194.7
PPG1.11
GF0.90
GA-0.56
PPG0.55
PPG1.45
PPG1.40
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate18.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.90
Goals Std0.73
Scored 1+ rate13.7%
Scored 2+ rate21.7%
Scored 3+ rate19.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.56
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate18.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score-3.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.71
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate56.9%
Lead Points Retention0.48
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate19.7%
Trailing Win Rate30.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.48
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.09
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-23.81
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.16
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.07
Current Team ELO194.7
Current Opponent ELO-194.7
Current ELO Difference389.5
Expected score0.51
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance11.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aragvi Dusheti

D
Gori0–0Aragvi Dusheti31 Oct · away
Pick: Gori 39% · missed
D
Aragvi Dusheti0–0Gareji24 Oct · home
Pick: Gareji 38% · missed
W
Samtredia0–1Aragvi Dusheti17 Oct · away
Pick: Samtredia 42% · missed
D
Kolkheti Poti1–1Aragvi Dusheti30 Aug · away
Pick: Kolkheti Poti 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kolkheti Poti

W
Kolkheti Poti3–0Gareji31 Oct · home
Pick: Gareji 40% · missed
D
Telavi1–1Kolkheti Poti24 Oct · away
Pick: Telavi 55% · missed
D
Kolkheti Poti1–1Aragvi Dusheti30 Aug · home
Pick: Kolkheti Poti 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aragvi Dusheti and Kolkheti Poti meet in Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at Tsentraluri Stadioni, Dusheti. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Aragvi Dusheti win 53.2%, draw 22.3%, Kolkheti Poti win 24.5%. The pick is Aragvi Dusheti win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.2%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.